Istanbul, standing on the fault line between the Eurasian tectonic plate and the Anatolian tectonic microplate, has a high probability to be in the area of a strong earthquake. As they say seismologists, the question is not whether it will, the only question is when it will happen. With 50 percent probability it could happen by 2030. As shows historical chronicle, on average, earthquakes of moderate strength again in Istanbul once in fifty years. Strong tremors less likely to happen, they are recorded in 1509, 1766, 1894 and 1999.
the Most vulnerable to aftershocks regions situated in the European part of the 18-million metropolis, in particular the old town district of Istanbul and is popular with tourists and locals of Istanbul.
By order of the Istanbul municipality seismologists have investigated how dangerous is an earthquake of over 7.5 magnitude for each of the 39 areas of the city into European and Asian parts. According to their findings, the hardest hit of the European part of Istanbul from the old town and further South-West along the Marmara sea, including the districts of Zeytinburnu, Küçükçekmece, Avcılar.
the Number of victims in case of an earthquake may be in the thousands, and the victims – tens of thousands, scientists warn. Hundreds of thousands of people required immediate evacuation and shelters. As for the damage, then in the old town, where almost all the major attractions that are under threat 72% of buildings.
However, what the district may be affected most strongly – is unclear, because scientists can’t predict where will be the epicenter of the earthquake.
the city Authorities to develop a plan which should help to reduce the damage, but the city is expected to carry about 7,700 of the old buildings to build in their place a modern earthquake-proof buildings. How realistic is it to make in the foreseeable future, given the economic crisis in Turkey, is unclear.
