the Moscow suggests that Mongolia may become a new member state of the CSTO. It would seem, why not? The more countries are included in the system of collective security, the it stronger. However, the problem is how the events will take Beijing to a country with which Russia has very important political relationship, and looks at Mongolia as well.
The organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO) in the near future can get a new participant. And not just a party, and the first country from the former Soviet Union – Mongolia. This, at least, hinting at the Russian foreign Ministry. “Mongolia invited to connect to the CSTO, which, perhaps, is such an important priority from the point of view of interests of the Russian Federation. And Mongolia that invitation positively considered, it resonates with the country’s leadership”, – said the Director of the first Department of Asian Affairs of Russia Georgy Zinoviev.
Wide our open spaces
Why the response is clear. CSTO Charter implies that countries agree to defend each other from external threats. And these threats, in General are obvious. For Belarus’s Western neighbors, and Ukraine. For Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. For Central Asia – the threat of radical Islamism emanating from Afghanistan. As for Mongolia to date, the main security threat comes from China.
In fact, Mongolia was in a paradoxical situation. On an area of almost 1.5 million square kilometres (for the understanding is the 35th Moscow regions) is home to around 3 million people. In the end, the country population density (2 people per sq km) occupies the last place in the world.
But at the same time, the area is very rich in minerals – including rare earth metals and represents a convenient transit territory for Russian-Chinese trade. As the Mongols are now trying to use it. “I am confident that Mongolia is located between Russia and China, to obtain huge economic benefits from the development of transport infrastructure along the route of the Tea horse road,” said former Ambassador of Mongolia in Russia Luvsandandaryn Khangai.
The country is trying to connect to the Russian-Chinese energy projects and at the same time to diversify their communications Declaration of neutrality and the so-called policy of the “third neighbor”. In the sense that the Mongolian government did not focus on cooperation with China and Russia, and trying to build relations with the United States, Japan, South Korea, India and other countries.
Sheep will not save
However, this policy is not very effective because of the specificity of the Mongolian economy. In the Soviet period, Mongolia was heavily dependent on relations with the Northern neighbor��m, and when the Soviet Union collapsed, behind him collapsed and the Mongolian economy.
Now the country has shifted to China – up to 90% of Mongolian exports go to China. Western companies may invest in the Mongolian mining industry – production still in the end will go to China. Yes, in public the Chinese authorities exude compliments Mongolian colleagues, however, do not hesitate to use the dependence of the Mongolian economy from a Chinese location.
So, after a visit to Mongolia by the Dalai Lama (and the majority of Mongolians are Buddhist) China, almost imposed a blockade against the country, forcing Ulaanbaatar to apologize and to promise that new visits will not. And Mongolian authorities understand that they can send to Beijing, any “gifts” as a sign of friendship – as, for example, to send tens of thousands of sheep in support of the Chinese struggle against coronavirus – but China will never consider Mongolia as an equal or even as a sovereign state.
Experts fear that China’s rise will be accompanied by the growth of Chinese nationalism and Mongolia, with all its neutrality, it can be one of the victims of Chinese ambitions. And not only in terms of economic manipulation, but also, under certain circumstances, the direct uptake as the next stage of “picking up the Chinese lands” after the return of Taiwan.
All these rumors are amplified due to the historical animosity of the Mongols to the Chinese, as well as rumors on how the Chinese government suppress the non-Han minorities in their regions. Including in the so-called “Inner Mongolia” – part of historical Mongolia part of China. When the author was in the region and met with local authorities, they were submitted exclusively by the Chinese – Mongolian to control their lands is not allowed.
Where to go?
Naturally, a country with similar fears and potential was to the attention of American politicians. In fact Mongolia in the Western sense – a “fledgling democracy sandwiched between two authoritarian neighbours, which is extremely difficult future in a time when its two great neighbors… are trying to reshape Eurasia”.
A number of American experts has already written about the fact that Mongolia and its fears of Chinese to use. That “Mongolia, like many other small States along the border of China needs American leadership”. Leadership that would allow US to create along the Chinese frontiers strip of its allies or satellites – a kind of “constellation of democracies” in the face of Mongolia, Japan, Taiwan, India and other countries – and then use them to razdelyvanie Chinese attention on all fronts.
And that would be a problem for us-China relations, if Mongolia was still vdol�� Russian borders. And in Moscow believe that 3.5 thousand kilometers virtually unguarded border in the Siberian underbelly should not be controlled neither by the Americans nor Chinese. So perhaps the Kremlin has offered Mongolian neighbors, the alternative is not to enter the “Constellation of democracies”, and to ensure the safety of the Chinese claims by connecting to the CSTO.
Competitive advantage of Moscow to Washington is not only a common border and a history of mutual aid in the twentieth century, but also the reputation of the United States. America gets allies, but does not protect them in the hour of need, it did not save nor Georgia in 2008, nor the Egyptian generals in 2011, or Ukraine in 2014, no many times the Kurds.
Curiously, the States theoretically will not mind this alternative. And not only because in relation to Mongolia, the interests of the United States and Russia converge (both States were in favour of a sovereign and independent Mongolia), but also because Russia in this case will finally be connected to at least one regional project of containing China.
And the question here is, how is this “connection” will react in Beijing. The Chinese consider Mongolia as your domain and it can be regarded the accession of Mongolia to the CSTO (not in the SCO, where China is one of the managers, namely in the Russian CSTO) as attempt of Moscow to their interests. And if Beijing is unhappy, then the entry will likely not take place – not only because of concerns of Moscow, but also because of the reluctance of the Central Asian CSTO members to get involved in a conflict with China. Therefore, most likely, is that it about the direct entry will not go.
“Mongolia could hypothetically get in the CSTO, but not as a member, but rather an observer. As, for example, the EEC entered Moldavia. Maybe this format will be specifically made to suit Mongolia. Of course, the CSTO that would be interesting because it would have expanded the scope of responsibility, could further be used for monitoring of transport communications”, – said the head of the Department of Eurasian integration and the development of the SCO of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Evseev.
The country will try to just “snap” to the Russian defence Union, so it was not included in the other.
