Despite the administrative resources and personal support to trump, the President of Poland Andrzej Duda failed to be reelected in the first round of elections. In the second round he will fight with Rafal Trzaskowski. From Duda Trzaskowski is characterized in that popular crowd, and also with respect to comments about the Russians. By the way, the polls reveal a new trend – unlike the older generation, the youth advocates reconciliation with Moscow.
The electoral Commission of Poland on Monday announced the results of the processing efficiency of 99.78% of the ballots held on the eve of the presidential election. In the first round the incumbent head of state Andrzej Duda won of 43.67% of the vote, while his rival from Poland’s largest opposition party “Civic platform”, the mayor of Warsaw, rafał Trzaskowski – 30,34%. In third place is independent candidate, journalist Szymon Hołownia, received 13,85. This is a record turnout of 64.4%.
Thus, despite all the seemingly available chances, Duda failed to gain 50% of votes required for unconditional victory. Now the winner of the presidential race will reveal the second round of voting, which will take place on July 12.
According to observers Andrzej Duda have already used all their resources and now for the victory he will have to attract the votes of candidates dropped out of the fight. For the same voices will fight and Trzaskowski.
Characteristically, four days before the election Duda visited Washington, where he met with Donald trump, and Trzaskowski, enlisted the support of mayors of capitals of the European Union. This is partly talking about different political vectors of the candidates. But for Russia another thing is important: unlike Duda, his opponent doesn’t seem to suffer the painful Russophobia. “The poles and Russians have always been close. As a future President, I declare that I will always be open to conversations about how to improve our contacts with Russia, because two great Nations can do much more than to be in constant tension” –such pre-election statement Trzaskowski EurAsia Daily quotes. On it, by the way, found neobhodimym personally criticized Duda.
However, the same Trzaskowski on the question of whether he would like the warming of relations with Russia, said: “Today Russia is not a responsible participant in international relations. It is very good that the EU and NATO hold a strong and principled policy towards Russia. There is no other way,” he was quoted by “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” .
And yet, because Trzaskowski need more votes in the second round. Much depends on who took third place journalist Shimon holovni of the new generation of Polish Catholic intellectuals. Who he will support in the second round may depend on the final result, reports TASS. A holownia cannot be called a hawk and a Russophobe. For example, the gasket channel through the Baltic spit, which began out of spite of Russia, he recently called “franskin idiocy, then supporters of the latter accused him of collusion with Russia, reports “the new York times.ru”. Anyway, in case of failure Duda in the second Polish policy in the East has a chance to mitigate.
In Russia special attention in this regard is attracted by the figure of another candidate, who caused a sensation in the elections – Krzysztof Bosak, considered marginal, earned 7% of the vote and finished fourth. He represents the conservative euroskeptic party “Confederation”, in favour of the dialogue with Russia and understanding relevant to Moscow’s policy towards Ukraine. That is the factor of “warming with Moscow” may not be last in the presidential campaign.
It is noteworthy that Bosak is only in second place after Trzaskowski level of popularity among poles aged 18 to 29 years. According to surveys, over Trzaskowski ready to vote for 23% of the electorate this age, and for the second 22.
Earlier, the political scientist Stanislav Stremidlovsky said the newspaper VIEW that Bosak is considered the least anti-Russian of the candidates. He noted, however, that among the supporters of his “Confederation” there are two currents. Some “ideologically motivated voters, for whom the struggle against LGBT people and the upholding of moral values is most important” and for them, the mayor of Warsaw Trzaskowski is too liberal. Other “confederates”, the economic libertarians will prefer Trzaskowski tune, since the last state party has strengthened aspect in the economy.
Former Chairman of the Commission on international Affairs of the Sejm of Poland, a political scientist Tadeusz Iwinski remembers Krzysztof Bosak at the meetings in Parliament.
“Bosak is a relatively young man. By the way, he recently got married, and this fact also played into his hands. At public events he performed together with his wife. But few expected that he would gain 7%”, – said the expert newspaper VIEW.
“Bosak led the rather strange structure – a coalition of nationalists and right-wing populists. Before they were fragmented, perceived as extremists and marginal, but now they managed to find common ground and work together to reach young people with radical slogans,” explained Iwinski.
According to him, the youth partially responded to these slogans and now “Confederation” has become a real force.
“the coalition of those opposed to the primitive approach of the current government, said Iwinski. – They believe that because of its geographical location, Poland should not turn into enemies nor Germany, nor Russia”.
Another former member of the Seimas, the Director of the European center of geopolitical analysis Mate��W Piskorski believes that the Bosak it is not necessary to imagine a Pro-Russian politician.
“Before the election, he said he was not against the placement in Poland of US nuclear missiles. However, among the leaders of his party, there are people who to Russia is friendly. For example, Janusz Korwin-Mikke or Grzegorz Braun,” said Piskorski newspaper VIEW.
However, Polish youth, which is based “Confederation”, a more pragmatic attitude towards Russia than the older generation, recognized Piskorski.
“public opinion polls of recent months say that 65-68% of poles in the age category from 18 to 25 years old believe that Warsaw should try to negotiate with Moscow that it is time to unfreeze our relations,” – said the analyst.
Piskorski also noticed that from the political agenda in Poland disappeared, the war in the Donbas and indeed Ukraine.
“With Zelensky coming to power, the issue of the state nationalist ideology has ceased to be so visible to Warsaw, as it was under Poroshenko. So during the election campaign about Ukraine, no one said almost nothing,” – said the expert.