the First week of protests, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko held a rally of his supporters and promised to give the country, even when dead. On the same day the opposition held a March that by the number of participants doubled from the Pro-government rally. According to experts, Lukashenka has less chances of retaining power in their hands, due to which the situation in the Republic in the near future may change dramatically.
On Sunday in Minsk for the first time in a week after the election, a rally was held not only opponents of Alexander Lukashenko and his supporters. According to the interior Ministry, the number of participants amounted to about 65 thousand, and to the final speech of the President have gathered more than 70 thousand people.
In his speech the head of the Republic noted that he is not a supporter of street protests, but now was forced to call people for help. Lukashenko said that if they agree to re-elections, Belarus “will die as a state”.
“They yell to me “Go away!”. No question! No question, no question! But to kill and tear they will be us and our children! Remember this” – called Lukashenko.
Mass protests began across Belarus on 9 August, after the presidential election, the results of which the acting head of the Republic, according to the CEC, gained 80.1% of votes. The stock was heavily repressed by the enforcement officials used tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets and stun grenades. Protesters pelted Riot police with Molotov cocktails.
Amid pressure from Western countries twice Lukashenko held telephone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As the press service of the Kremlin, Moscow confirmed its readiness to provide Minsk with the necessary assistance in the resolution of arising problems on the basis of the principles of the Treaty establishing the Union state, and also if necessary – the CSTO. However, according to experts, the statements of the Kremlin on this account are purely a matter of Protocol.
The Russian and Belarusian political scientists have differed in estimates of the meeting with participation of Lukashenka. So, according to the head of the center for Belarusian research of the Institute of Europe RAS, expert of the club “Valdai” Nicholas Mezhevich, the President of Belarus should hold a similar meeting in 2019.
“And not one meeting but a few dozen. And not only in Minsk but also in regional and district centers. If Lukashenka did all that – he would not allow what is happening on the streets of the Belarusian”, – said Mezhevich the newspaper VIEW.
On the other hand, the expert continued, holding a meeting is the right decision, allowing Lukashenko to show that it is also able to bring people to the street. “But if it will help him? It’s hard to say,” added the analyst. “As for the performances, I estimate it highly enough. It was a strong speech. But it would say much earlier,” he Mezhevich.
Different opinion of Russian political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko. According to him, the speech Lukashenko was “bright, but not light”.
“the Way – frustrated by the disobedience of the kids father, which gave them a belt for their own good, and they are ungrateful, more indignant and even want to evict a nursing home”,
– wrote the analyst in his telegram channel, adding that “the mobilization of the Pro-government camp looks lame.”
“Even if Lukashenko is now hold – how is that enough? The protest will begin again on some other occasion. Maybe he should think about some sort of transit authority. Or, alternatively, to change the government with the involvement of representatives of the opposition. But are you ready for the opposition? Maybe they also want everything at once”, – said Minchenko in comments the newspaper VIEW.
“I think that Lukashenka will save only a miracle. You can, of course, to use tough measures against protesters and troops. But it will cause sanctions from the West. And with Russia, Lukashenka is on the rocks. Therefore, in place of the President I have tried to look for compromises”, – said Minchenko.
At the same time, the Belarusian political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets called the President’s speech “speech of last resort”, which sounded historically significant words. Among them are the phrases that the Belarusians will be “the Brest fortress”, “want to earn money not in the squares and in the fields, factories and factories”, and the phrase that Lukashenko “will not allow to give the country, even if it is dead.”
“But in fact these statements are more like a farewell speech, which concludes the era of Lukashenko. Because I would not be surprised if in the coming days the President will resign. Otherwise, we are waiting for the extension of the strike movement, which will cause damage to the country’s economy. Thus Lukashenko simply destroy all the achievements of Belarus under his leadership,” said Bolkunets the newspaper VIEW.
In turn, the Director of the Ukrainian center for policy Ruslan Bortnik believes that Lukashenko and his team in conditions of acute political crisis, not enough strategy, which the President’s supporters are losing confidence in their abilities. “The power structure is experiencing erosion, which is indicated by the fact that the opposition managed to capture the street” – said Bortnik newspaper VIEW.
We will add that on Sunday evening the Belarusian opposition holds large-scale protests across the country. The number of protesters in Minsk, according to various estimates, can exceed 200 thousand browcentury. “An endless stream of people. Compared to this, let’s be Frank, a government meeting was a single picket,” – said on this occasion, being on a place of events the military correspondent of “Komsomolskaya Pravda” Alexander Kots.
“People ask me, how many people in the square. Guys, on square 20, maybe 30-I am part of those people that went avenues. And passed through Independence square. And they were actually to Fig. I don’t remember I saw such a number of processions. Maybe as a child, on may day…” – said the journalist.
In this connection Ruslan Bortnik admits that in the near future, perhaps in a week, after a long opposition street marches will start to capture the state institutions of government: the municipal level and the Republican. “And to negotiate with the opposition, Lukashenko will be extremely difficult. In the end he’s left with two options: either to abandon power and leave the country or to use force with unknown consequences for all”, – concluded the expert.