The current elections in Belarus are very different from previous campaigns, writes Bloomberg columnist Andreas clout. In his opinion, the country could become "another nightmare of Europe".
For the first time in 26 years, President Aleksandr Lukashenko has no clear support from the people, says the author, citing the survey results. He admits that the incumbent claims victory, but notes that this time the situation is not as it was in the previous elections.
CLUT writes about "convincing the Troika" — wives of the three opposition candidates who did not register candidates in elections. They have come together to fight for votes and rallies in support of opposition to gather thousands of Belarusians. The author has seen in public events against corruption and "ridiculous" statements of Lukashenka about the coronavirus.
The columnist believes that the Belarusian President now I have to restrain myself in order not to disperse the rallies.
"He knows that this will trigger new sanctions from the EU and pretentious moralizing about human rights and democracy from Brussels, Berlin and other Western capitals," writes clot.
He recalled that the intervention of Europe Lukashenko quite well by appealing to Moscow, but now, according to the columnist, he is concerned about the position of Russia.
Established in 1999 the Union state analyst saw "fit of nostalgia" from Lukashenko and is based on the leading role in the Union because of "weakness" of the then Russian leader Boris Yeltsin. Now the Belarusian President, according to Clute, shines in the role of regional Governor.
At the same time Russia has repeatedly stressed that it plans to merge with Belarus do not have, and advocate for the deepening of integration within the Union state.
The author believes that Lukashenko will seek to converge with the European Union, and therefore will not resort to harsh crackdown on the protests.
Clout saw the opportunity "color revolution" in Belarus, like the euromaidan and the Russian "intervention" to prevent such a scenario. According to the analyst, as evidenced by the arrest in late July, 33 of Russians in the Republic.
However, earlier media, citing a source in Russian secret services reported that this incident was a provocation organized by Kiev.
Clout urged the EU to support Lukashenka "for the sake of geopolitical interests." In the author’s opinion, Belarus under the leadership of the current President needs Europe as a buffer zone.
But at the same time, the author urges Europeans not to ignore the protests against the Belarusian leader to "do not betray the European values".
Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on 9 August. For the post of the head of state PRlanduyt five people: acting head of state Alexander Lukashenko, a former Deputy of the lower house of Parliament Anna konopacka, co-chair of the public Association "Tell the truth" Andrey Dmitriev, head of the social democratic party "scrum" Sergey Caraceni and wife of popular videoblogger Svetlana Tikhanovski.
The election campaign is accompanied by the arrests of opposition representatives, as well as unauthorized protests in Minsk and other cities.