– several meteorological centres European, American and German – had approximately the same forecast: a high probability of formation of destructive squalls and tornadoes. What was expected, in the Urals did not happen the last ten years, I guess. Of course, I wanted to see it live, – says the initiator of the expedition Igor Azhigov. The student supported the candidate of geographical Sciences Andrey Shikhov and his colleague from the Department Andrey Tarasov. The team got into the car and drove to the neighboring region.
the Researchers expected that the storm front will begin to form to the West from Yekaterinburg, somewhere in the area of Krasnoufimsk, and the capital region suited to the stage of a developed storm. But it turned out otherwise.
– the First stop we made in the area of the Upper Pyshma, and then moved in the direction of Cutting. Under layered clouds suddenly began to appear cloud-like coils. It was strange: usually the cloud is the rolls occur at the end of the storm. Then I realized that it was an ordinary cumulonimbus clouds only form non-standard. At a height of several kilometers was a very strong wind, up to 150-170 kilometers per hour, which contributed to the formation of these strange clouds, – explains Igor Azhigov.
to Show all its potential elements gave stratus clouds, where the air temperature at the front was five or six degrees lower than predicted. The result is thunderstorms began to form two hours later than expected and was less intense. The predicted hurricane never took place, although the wind and reached 25-30 meters per second. Something interesting “hunters” still saw. The development of the storm was, as the researchers say, explosive, she emerged on an empty place is literally 15 minutes – this happens very rarely. While elektroaktivisten – the frequency of lightning per unit time was relatively high.
– there Were two waves of rain, wind, visibility fell to zero. First time watched this, – says Andrey Tarasov upset that you failed to see the tornado.
Andrey Shikhov adds: though a tornado could not see (Yes they did) he’s not too disappointed – after all, even with this forecast, the probability of being in the right time in the right place small.
Chasing the storm, the team has organized itself not to tickle. “Hunters” was driven by scientific interest.
– the Risk of tornadoes in Russia for a long time underestimated, – said Andrey Shikhov. – Only in April of this year a group of authors with our participation, was published a large scientific work “Climatology of tornadoes in North Eurasia”: researches have shown that the number of recorded tornadoes several times more than previously thought. First obtained a relatively objective assessment.
current research in th�� on the territory of our country comes up to 250-350 tornadoes on land, most of it can be traced by the characteristic flattened forest zone based on satellite imagery. They occur not only on the black sea coast. Most of them are fixed in the European part of Russia, the Urals and Western Siberia. Some are really devastating: for example, in August 2014 the element is turned into the ruins of the 500 houses in the Bashkir village Karieva, two people were killed and 70 injured. In June 2017, a devastating tornado swept across the Kurgan region, only by miracle has done without victims. The epicentre of the disaster was completely demolished four houses.
– the Devastating tornadoes and squalls in Russia there are, of course, substantially less than in the US or in some European countries, but still they are there. According to the world’s scientific community, the frequency of such natural phenomena will increase, we have due to climate warming at least expand the borders of season, the occurrence of such phenomena. Need to have a viable information system: we have as objectively as possible to present the scale and predict such events is the only way to minimize the damage, – says Andrey Shikhov.
Observation, along with analysis of the damage (including from satellite imagery) is a reliable method of fixation of a squall or tornado. In the US hunters tornadoes help the meteorological office to identify them. Information about the number and nature of tornadoes and squalls helps to improve the forecasts and, accordingly, to warn the population.
But in Russia, fans chase the storms is not enough: the phenomenon rare, and the conditions are not suitable.
In comparison with other countries, where the hunt for tornadoes widespread, we have more forest areas and the much lower density of the road network. In addition, the United States has been the whole territory covered by these radars that can help monitor dangerous weather phenomena. In Russia quality of radar data is not yet available everywhere. For example, in the Sverdlovsk region we focused on satellite imagery EUMETSAT (European organisation for the exploitation of meteorological satellites) and the data direction finding of lightning. This is certainly useful data, but they are less informative than the radar – says Igor Azhigov.
the Perm meteorologists continue to monitor the forecasts for our region and neighboring regions and are planning to continue this expedition, if somewhere nearby there is a probability of a dangerous storm or tornado.
– If we consider the last five to ten years, then one or two times a year on our territory happen worthy of observation events, – says Andrey Shikhov. However, he notes that the tornadoes are a little less. The last major tornado was July 10 of last year in Kushva, and before 13 SeptemberRYA 2018 in the North of the Perm region, also a few cases recorded in June 2017, in particular in the villages of Staroutkinsk and Hang.