Quarantine measures in Germany gradually softened, the country returns to normal. Die Welt cited several reasons that contributed to the stabilization of the situation with coronavirus. However, the newspaper said, the risk of a second wave cannot be ruled out.
the life of the Germans is back to normal: people again sit in restaurants, visit the shops and hairdresser. While the easing of quarantine measures has not led to an increase in the number of new infections, although experts had concerns that this would happen
Over the past few days the Institute named Robert Koch (RKI) was recorded from 300 to 600 new infections per day. For comparison: in early April, every day was about 6,000 infected.
Important in the evaluation of the infection process is the so-called basic reproductive number (Ro) or average number of cases caused by one sick. If it is always below one, the epidemic slowly subsided. According to estimates RKI, in early March, the figure was about three: on average, one infected person has infected three others.
Epidemiology Rafael mikolajczyk from Halle-Wittenberg University, Martin Luther explains the statistics may decrease contacts between people that have resulted in the “reduction of the number of reproductions”.
According to the RKI, the last few days Ro in Germany was between 0.7 and 0.8. This means that every day sick with coronavirus less people than recover. According to Mikolajczyk to avoid increasing the number of infected people, it is enough to reduce the contact of people.
If Germany had imposed quarantine restrictions later or they would have been less severe, the number of infections would have been much more. However, emphasizes epidemiology, the spread of the virus there is still much not known.
According to the virologist Melanie Brinkman, scientific employee of the research Center for infectious diseases named after Helmholtz in Braunschweig, also had the meaning of the requirement to wear a protective mask. However, according to Brinkman, “after opening its first store on 20 April revealed that the number of AO increased slightly, because he was weakened requirements to wear a mask.”
the Virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Institute of tropical medicine to them. Bernhard nohta three principal reasons for the low incidence of currently: the prohibition of events with a large number of people rules of hygiene and observance of the rules of the race. “It was important to overcome the first wave of the epidemic,” he says, “and we succeeded”.
is There a risk of the second wave? Epidemiologist mikolajczyk warns: “the Second wave is a very real danger”. Further development of a pandemic depends on the politicians and discipline companies. It is important that the value of Ro has remained below one, says virologist Brinkman. In the ethe case the health authorities will be able to control the situation is to interrupt the chain of infection through contact tracing and quarantine. “Then we can prevent a second wave of the epidemic, – Mrs. Brinkman. It is important for people to gather only in small groups, wearing protective masks, especially when they are in rooms with people you don’t know.”