Russia these days is going through a whole range of emotions: the number of people infected with coronavirus, on Tuesday again exceeded 9 thousand, and the number of victims, according to the Moscow on the crisis staff, amounted to 174 — more than ever before in one day.
However, Russian doctors accused the country’s leadership in the insufficient measures for their protection from contamination and underestimation of the real number of victims of coronavirus by manipulation of the death certificates. Meanwhile, the number of victims of “the crown” among doctors and nurses is also growing.
At the same time is a huge country, stretching from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka, is on the verge of a deep economic depression. Because self-isolation will last at least until the end of may, GDP in the second quarter of this year will be reduced by 16%, and it will be worse than in the 1990-ies. This is the forecast of economists by Bloomberg. Only April, it decreased by 28%.
Worse: although the European Bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD) and predicts decline in Russia’s GDP is “only” 4.5% by year-end, in the long term Russia will not soon recover from the effects of coronavirus infection and caused by disturbances in energy markets, says recently published report, the Kremlin-funded by the Energy center of SKOLKOVO.
If Russia will not make structural reforms and get rid of the shackles in the form of energy exports, the state budget’s income “will decline sharply”, says the paper. While GDP growth in the next two decades will be about 0.8% per year — it is still only a third of what is committed by the Russian Ministry of economic development.
“the Oil and gas will remain only with raw materials — it is not a special yield, which is the beginning of the century was the main “trigger" Russian economic miracle,” believes the Director of Energy center SKOLKOVO Tatiana Mitrova.
Agree with her and former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who heads the Accounts chamber. According to him, the profits which the country received in the past 20 years from oil and gas exports, will never return. So he wrote Monday in the newspaper “Kommersant”, adding: “This is a huge challenge for economic policy”.
the Putin is under pressure
This is the biggest challenge for Vladimir Putin, for 20 years, standing on the pinnacle of power. The coming severe economic crisis weighs on him. 67-year-old President intends to hold a national referendum to change the Constitution to allow it in 2024 to participate in the next presidential election. The current wording of the Constitution does not give him this opportunity.
Due to the outbreak of coronavirus Putin in late March, had to postpone the referendum. But now he has signed a law according to which elections and referendums you can vote by mail or electronically, officially to protect the health of the population.
By the end of next week the State Duma will set a date for a vote. According to sources, Putin wants it to take place before 1 September. The date of the vote should be appointed by Parliament not less than a month.
To send positive signals to citizens, recently decided to allow medical workers to take out loans to buy cars at low interest rates. So doctors and nurses can quickly and without undue risks to get to work. In addition, this measure is intended to maintain the land in a deep crisis dealers, whose sales for “black April” fell by 72%.