Economic crisis characterized by falling production, rising unemployment, lower rates of commodity currencies. These phenomena are now happening all over the world including Russia. Analysts said much may take a new crisis.
If you talk, hold the “frame” of the macroeconomic stability established by the Russian authorities in recent years, the current conditions can be called the particular call (this is the term used to describe a situation used by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov in a recent interview with “Vedomosti” – “RG”) to check the resistance, says principal analyst “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich. In his opinion, for the pace and quality of growth of the Russian economy, particularly for aggregate demand, the current conditions are a full-fledged crisis.
However, Russia is very well prepared for the current economic shock has all the resources to successfully cope with him, emphasizes chief analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev. Russia has accumulated significant foreign exchange reserves and pursued a balanced macroeconomic policy with low public debt and its ratio to GDP. “Hence, our country can in this difficult time safely to increase borrowing without jeopardizing macroeconomic stability. It noted the international rating Agency, confirmed the rating of Russia at the current level. The ratings and outlooks on the ratings in many other developing countries have been deteriorated due to the negative impact of coronavirus,” says Vasiliev.
the Russian economy and the banking system in recent years has adapted to the dramatic change in external conditions. The fiscal rule has reduced the dependence of the ruble on the price of oil. Substantial foreign exchange reserves, low external debt, current account surplus and a balanced budget maintain the stability of the financial system of Russia. This year is expected to support the economy, increasing budget expenditure and actively stimulating monetary policy, reminds Vasiliev.
Built macroeconomic stability and experience of previous crises allowed the Bank of Russia to respond to the economic shock quickly and effectively. Foreign exchange intervention of the Central Bank helped to stabilize the ruble exchange rate and dampen inflationary expectations. In this crisis, the ruble has suffered the fewest losses among other emerging market currencies, despite the decline in oil prices by more than 60%.
the Margin of inflation, which remains below the target of 4% allowed the Central Bank for the first time in a crisis to reduce the key rate by 0.5 percentage point to 5.5% per annum, and give a signal of further monetary policy easing. Against this background, the yield of OFZ almost played all of the March losses and��Gouda near their historic lows. In addition, the reduction of the key rate will help to reduce interest rates on loans, including mortgage loans, and thus reduce the debt burden of borrowers, says Vasiliev.
After the lifting of quarantine restrictions, the economy will gradually recover. However, to fully compensate for economic losses quickly fail, warns Vasiliev. The consequences of a pandemic will affect people’s lives for several years and is likely to lead to a substantial restructuring of the global economy, he said.
According to Pokatovich, if the active phase of viral spread in the world to be completed in early summer, then in the second half, the global economy will move to a gradual recovery. At the same time, the Russian economy will manage to avoid recession, which will be at least 5-6%, while under less favorable scenarios (the most important factor in this plane is the ultimate level of efficiency of the state support of the population and business this year) may exceed the levels of 7-8%, he said.
If the second half of the year 2020 the world economy is likely to embark on the path of recovery, then in 2021 the Russian economy can maintain a growth of 3-5%, expects the analyst. However, the main contribution to these rates of growth will likely be the low base effect in 2020. On a more sustainable growth path of 1.5-3% of the Russian economy, according to Pokatovich, will stand in 2022.
