the fact that humanity faces the deepest recession since the great depression of 1929-1933 years, did not say just lazy. So Bloomberg, along with banks JPMorgan and Citigroup, joined the General voice. According to their estimates, the recession will be short, but to the national economy, even with unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus – will require more than one year to catch up in the coming months.
And that’s not counting all the losses! On the backdrop of the spread of coronavirus the size of the total debt of all countries at the end of this year may increase to 342% of the global GDP, noted in the study of the U.S. Institute of international Finance (Institute of International Finance, IIF). In 2019 rose to a record 322% ($255 trillion). This indicator, calculated on a quarterly basis and analysts IIF includes the debt of governments, banks, nonfinancial corporations and households. Now he is 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008. The economic effect of a pandemic could lead to the impoverishment of approximately 500 million inhabitants of the planet, according to Oxfam – an international Association of organizations for the fight against poverty.
it is Clear that the current crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic and breakdown of OPEC oil transaction+ will be much deeper and heavier than all previous. The question is how? All estimates are very much “walk”, says Professor of the faculty of world economy and international Affairs NRU HSE Alexei Portansky. Even if they sound from the mouth of such distinguished persons as former U.S. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger and head of the Council on foreign relations Henry Haas. The situation is changing every hour, exposing politicians and economists with their assessments and forecasts in a bad light.
as for Russia, then, according to Portansky, the true scale of the disaster is unknown. Authorities are trying to find a time that will allow them to relatively accurately determine the size of potential losses, but this reference dotsand constantly escapes. Everything else, noted the interlocutor of “MK”, Russia has significantly less potential for direct financial aid to households and businesses than developed countries.
The same Bloomberg, by the way, talks about why the Russian government so little is spent on rescuing the economy – only about 2% of GDP (in 2008 it was 10%). The Agency connects the behavior of the authorities that they are preparing for a prolonged period of cheap raw materials and want to stretch their reserves for as long a period. Such actions are fraught with a deeper recession and a slower recovery, warns expert Bloomberg Economics Scott Johnson.
Previously, Forbes estimated fiscal measures to support major economies. The absolute leader in generosity – Germany, whose stimulus package is equivalent to 37% of gross domestic product. Italy will allocate the amount of about 20% of GDP, the UK, Spain and France, from 14% to 16% of GDP. United States – more than 12%.
“the World is simultaneously faced with paralysis and demand, and supply, which was not in the recession of 2008-2009, says a corresponding member of RAS, doctor of economic Sciences Ruslan Grinberg. – It is unclear how, for how long and with what agony we will all emerge from this completely unimaginable story. The level of uncertainty in the global economy and to the coronavirus, and now he rolls.”
Evaluating the actions of the Russian leadership, the interlocutor of “MK” calls them inadequate. According to Greenberg, the notorious “store” in the form of the national welfare Fund ( it has more than 12 trillion rubles) is causing more problems. Come black days, and the state is waiting for something without spending the extra money (budget surplus, foreign exchange reserves) or to support economic activity, no stabilization of the ruble. This wait and see attitude, according to the interlocutor of “MK” – completely irrational, especially in conditions when there is a certain safety cushion, and thsdalg negligible. “The government should not fear that the financial assistance will go to the wrong address, will be in the hands of the “unworthy”. He should grieve over the fact that the money will not receive tens of millions of needy people, the dying, small and medium business”, – says Greenberg.
see also: Forecast for Russia’s future in the coronavirus: “everything will Change”