Russian scientists have uncovered two scenarios for the completion of the coronavirus pandemic in the Crimea. Their predictions experts told RIA Novosti.
According to experts analiticheskogo center of the Crimean Federal University (KFU), in the case of the complete lifting of quarantine measures on the Peninsula will be outbreak of disease when the virus can get more than fifty thousand people. In this scenario, the region will reach the peak only by the end of August.
“In this case, the peak number of admissions closer to 50 thousand people, and that our healthcare system can not stand it,” — said Vice rector for scientific activities Anatoly Kubyshkin.
He added that the calculations were based on the fact that the population is not faced with the coronavirus, and people have no immunity to it. There is a possibility that during the heat of summer the virus is difficult to survive, which means that the number infected may be less.
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The second scenario involves the persistence of transmission of the coronavirus at the current level — then the situation “will last for unshared time with the fluctuation of the number COVID-positive from 30 to 120 people”. To implement such a scenario will be difficult because the country is already beginning to weaken quarantine measures to save the business, including travel.
In any case, concluded the scientists, the inhabitants of the Crimea and tourists have long to live and relax in a pandemic. The coronavirus will not leave until while to it will not develop immunity, at least 60-70 percent of the population.
However, there are measures to prevent the spread of infection: introduction of testing, establishment of laboratories and funded places for the training of physicians.
Earlier it was reported that in the Crimea will buy 25 thousand rapid tests for coronavirus for tourists. According to the head of the region Sergey Aksenov, the procedure that allows you to “quickly identify cases and separate them from healthy people”, will help local authorities to calculate the model of organization of the tourist season. Purchased tests will be used in all resorts of the Peninsula since their discovery.
Time to open a resort for tourists will be designated for 26-27 may, added Feldman.
According to the latest data, in the Crimea was 324 cases of infection COVID-2019, recovered 130 people.
