The interest of visitors to shopping centres, shops and cafes in Moscow, is gradually starting to recover in the backdrop of withdrawal of quarantine restrictions. Market participants expect that by the beginning of July Shopping Index (reflects number of visitors for 1 sq. m of retail space) may be 80% of the same values last year. But the opposition of landlords and tenants in the market continues. While the first is mostly in reasonable bargaining and short-term discounts, last expect to rent space for 30-40% cheaper than before the crisis.The real estate market of Moscow began a gradual recovery. According to calculations by the Watcom Group, index Shopping Index last week was at 30-32% below the same period last year. At the peak of the fall, at a time when most food stores were closed, the difference amounted to 65-70%. With Jun Shopping Index began to recover in week 1 to 7 June, the figure lagged behind the previous year at 39-43%.In St. Petersburg where to resume work until able only non-food stores with a separate entrance, and most of the tenants targetrow remain closed, drop Shopping Index compared to June last year last week amounted to 58-66%. The attendance of the shops in the premises of street retail, according to estimates Watcom, now also restored actively. So, the Shopping Index at the end of the first week accounted for 47% of the same values last year, the second — 65%. Mr. Skorokhodov explains that in the summer the demand for street locations is traditionally higher than for those located inside shopping centres. “In terms of fatigue from quarantine restrictions and tight budgets on holiday, you can expect relatively high interest in visiting the summer terraces of cafes and restaurants”— suggests the expert.Potential scecina in Moscow not all tenants of commercial space managed to survive the crisis. According to estimates by the head of Department strit-retail JLL Catherine Podlesnyh, on Kuznetsky most street vacancy rate could be around 15%. In St. Petersburg the crisis is also felt quite keenly: at the end of three months applied for a vacancy on the Nevsky Prospekt increased by 2.7 percentage points to 10.7%.Senior consultant of the direction of “street retail” the company “Shop of shops” Olga Sviridova expects rising vacancy rates will continue for at least another two months since the lifting of restrictions on the job: the retail chain will begin to analyze your profit, closing unprofitable point. The pre-crisis level, the occupancy of the premises in this segment, according to her forecasts, will be released until the second half of 2021.”In turn, retailers offer them at rates 30-40% lower than dabout the quarantine restrictions,”— said Mrs. Sviridov.In R4S indicate that sign without discount 70% new business, 30% of cases the company gives a discount of 5-10% for up to 12 months. The company indicate that at Novoslobodskaya street you can now remove a large number of areas with 50% discount, but it says only that the cost was greatly inflated by the owner prior to the crisis. According to the pessimistic forecast R4S recovery of the market street retail will be delayed for two or three years, optimistically — for a year and a half.Prospects through the relocation shopping centers, the situation still looks stable. Estimated to Knight Frank, to open after quarantine in Moscow could not only 1% of the tenants. But analysts explain who the picture is incomplete and at the end of the month value should be adjusted upward.Senior analyst, research Department CBRE Catherine Kazanova agrees that the vacancy rate will grow significantly already by the end of the third quarter. This situation, in her words, creates the conditions for lower rental rates, but in the top shopping centres fees will remain at pre-crisis level. At Knight Frank adds that while the owners are willing to mostly on temporary adjustments of cost for 6-12 months, hoping in the future to return to pre-crisis levels.Head of research Department Maris Alyona Volobueva notes that in shopping centers of Saint-Petersburg the increase in vacancy rates has already been observed, but to estimate the scale of the process in the background that most shops are closed, it is impossible. In addition, according to the expert, many tenants are still in the process of negotiations with the owners. At the same time, according to Mrs. Volobueva, the activity of retail operators in the city remains.Source: data from Knight Frank.Alexandra Mertsalova
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