The interest of buyers and potential tenants for commercial real estate starts to grow. Despite the fact that the vacancy rate of premises street-retail has reached record levels, and the part of the operators still failed to negotiate with the owners, the consultants expect that this segment will recover faster than anyone. With a slightly more protracted recession, apparently, will face the office market, which is traditionally more inert reacts to shocks.Buying activity in stores street retail is gradually increasing. Estimated Watcom Shopping Index group (number of visitors per 1 thousand sq m of retail space) in the week from July 6 to 12, in street retail was 25% lower than the same period last year. For shopping centers, the backlog was less than 17%. In Saint-Petersburg in the background limited mode of operation logcentral the situation is the opposite: fall of Shopping Index is 56% compared to the same period last year, while for the premises of street retail — only 14%. Head of commercial real estate “Avito” Timur rabbits also notes the increasing activity of the tenants. Demand for retail space in Moscow, according to his estimates, now 6% higher than a year earlier, in St. Petersburg — by 10.7%. This increase expert associates with the realization of postponed demand.Temporary spelformerna the main performance indicators of the market street retail still far from recovery. The vacancy rate of premises street-retail in Moscow in the second quarter was 11.6%, an increase relative to the first 3.4 percentage points, according to data from CBRE. Analysts note that the current value is the maximum over the last four years. Growth is associated with prolonged downtime and the beginning of the crisis. CBRE noted that actively closed shops brick and mortar retailers and banks, who even before the pandemic has launched optimization program. Fold activity shops focused on the tourist stream: for example, on the old Arbat, according to CBRE, the vacancy rate for the quarter increased from 8.5% to 13.7%.For electronics stores, cellular phone stores, book and gift shops, the figure is 8%. The consultants add that the fate of many renters is uncertain: they did not resume, but did not vacate the premises — this can be interpreted as the ongoing negotiations with the owners. In such a status are now 9% located in the Central streets of food service establishments. Senior consultant of the company “Shop of shops” Olga Sviridova notes a noticeable increase in vacancy rates on Maroseika, Pokrovka and Myasnitskaya streets, linking it with a high share of public catering in the structure of tenants.In St. Petersburg, according to estimates of JLL, URStier vacancy was the same 11.6 percent, breaking the historical maximum of five years. The vacancy rate in the city has grown since September of last year, reflecting the General negative state of the economy. Mode restrictions have only exacerbated this trend. According to JLL, over the past three months for the nine main shopping streets of St. Petersburg crept in 120 stores and food service establishments. Only 44 of the lease during this period were concluded is the minimum value for all history of observations. Head of market research Maris Alyona Volobueva notes that the market street retail is the most dynamic, the development of a favorable scenario to his former life, he could return in the second half. Despite the delayed opening of shopping centers in Saint-Petersburg network will give this segment more attention, trying for the future to diversify risks. The average size of rental discounts in the city, estimated Maris now stands at 10-20%, but in less attractive locations can reach up to 30%.Extra Oficina the background of the crisis on the office market the downward trend in vacancy rates was replaced by growth. According to Colliers International, in Moscow, the vacancy rate in the second quarter for space in class A buildings increased by 0.8 percentage points, to 9.6%, class b fell by 0.5 percentage points to 4.9%. Director of Department of office real estate at Colliers International Natalia Bonneli draws attention to the fact that most of class A space vacant in the area between the TTK and Sadovoe ring, class b — near the Moscow ring road. Some of them are presented in the buildings where the last year and a half was not available. Mrs. Bonelli notes that many entered the market offices shall now sublease: increase of the market of such a proposal — a characteristic feature of the current crisis.The Director of the office real estate Department at Knight Frank Maria Zimina expects that by year-end, the vacancy rate of class A will rise to 9.7% and will remain at the current level. The decrease in average rental rates in Moscow analysts have not yet noted. But, according to Ms. Bonelli, the owners still be compliant: some of them have offered offices at a significant discount. According to Knight Frank, a class offices in Moscow are rented at an average price of 25 thousand rubles per sq m per year, To 16.6 thousand rubles To the end of the year, according to forecasts by Ms. Zimina, will continue the downward trend in these parameters.In St. Petersburg, according to Colliers Internationa l offices are empty more actively than in Moscow. In the second quarter, the vacancy rate in the city increased by 1.1 percentage points to 6.7%. Unlike Moscow, the vacancy rate in class above and is now 7.8 percent, for offices of a class And the rate is estimated at 4.5%. The consultants do not expect a serious roone hundred of these indicators due to minimal input of new objects. “The office market in St. Petersburg are barely active in the pre-crisis period”,— says Ms. Bonnel. She adds that the owners who refuse to make concessions, actively undermines the loyalty of tenants. But the move for the latter is not so easy because of the limited volume of supply.Alexander Mursalovitch: data “Avito”
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