Since March in the scientific community there have been discussions whether the former world. When these conversations first started, analysts relied on their intuition – there was no basis for research. Now, after a few months of the pandemic, scientists have learned, sometimes quite contradictory. Some believe that people here will run from the major cities, the reasonable mind. But the most paradoxical opinions of experts about jobs – if we can return to the office or will work on udalenke. This is evidenced by the discussion held in the Public chamber of the Russian Federation.
Director of the Center for territorial changes and urban development Ranepa Andrey Maksimov insists the world will never be the same. The fear of the virus people will choose safer places to live. The attractiveness of the small territories will grow.
– Remember that it was after the Second world war, – said Andrey Maksimov. – Veterans returning home, thought that the world will be different. And so it was. Although technically we can say that the country returned to the old Stalinist regime, soon came the movement of the sixties. Here is a direct consequence of the expectations of veterans – change in public preferences has occurred at least a certain part of society. Now, as the impact of the pandemic is also possible to wait for changes. The shock that had survived the society, who are used to a more pampered conditions than in the mid-twentieth century, will inevitably affect us all.
How exactly an impact? The expert suggests to start to understand who is beneficial.
– let’s Start with employers who are always seeking something to save. In conditions when remote work becomes more acceptable, it is unlikely that the entrepreneurs will avoid the temptation to use it. By transferring people with office work in remote mode, you can save money on premises, office equipment, current maintenance of computers. It’s hard to say in numbers – no one has ever done it, how entrepreneurs can save money, but certainly not less than 20%. Of course, they can save on labor costs, hiring for freelance work instead of “dear” Muscovites inhabitants of the province, who can pay three to four times less. Or leave the old employees, but in udalenkie. Thus, a major Russian oil company is currently considering the possibility to withdraw from the office 20% of employees.
Authorities in different countries measuring how many jobs can be done remote. This video is half in Turkey – about 20%. If you look at the structure of workplaces in major Russian cities, especially megacities – we are between Turkey and France.
the Following is the cost of housing and the willingness to buy it. “Grace IPOTESA at 6.5% and preferential rural mortgages will allow you to move to small towns and villages a large number of people. Now the discussion is a program of individual housing construction, which will also encourage the Russians to move. In April-may to 213% increase in request for long-term rental cottages, 96% to cottages. A place for the construction of suburban housing were looking at 11-12% more than in the same period last year. I would argue that it will be a long-term trend. Not the fact, of course, that all working on udalenke will definitely move from the big city. But even if people will live in the village or small town a few months out of the year – this is the indicator”, – said Andrey Maksimov.
However, this view is contested by the head of the Center for intellectual resources and cooperation in social Sciences Igor Zadorin. He identified several problems that significantly limit the migration of population from large cities to small.
In April and may, we also assumed that residents of big cities want to move out of the city, – says Igor Zadorin. And conducted a study on this topic with colleagues of the Center for applied urban studies of Moscow state University. However, the results have seriously shaken our sense of scale desire to escape from the infection.
it turned Out that the total horror of the pandemic and its consequences inherent mainly Muscovites and St. Petersburg residents, continues Igor Zadorin. According to the study only a quarter of respondents knew about the coronavirus firsthand either ill themselves or have contracted their relatives, colleagues, acquaintances, friends of friends… And three quarters of Russians had no experience with the pandemic except through the information space. In other words, they formed an idea about infections and all that goes with it, on the “summaries”, which was broadcast mainly from the capital. The spread of the coronavirus in Russia was mainly through Moscow and other major cities. At its peak 60% of patients were in Moscow, the Moscow region and St. Petersburg.
Now about the possible move. In order to change their place of residence, the person must, first, to want to do it, and secondly, to have the opportunities, resources for moving, thirdly – to understand how hospitable is the new place of residence.
Alas – for most people really only “first”. Resources the Russians are clearly not enough even to move, much less to purchase a second home. Apartment in the city when the cost is cheaper than forming their own households in the village or small town.
Five years ago, when the Russians about the coronavirus did not know, the sociologists decided to find out what factors hinder the resettlement of the inhabitants of large cities to the countryside. P��the era of all was the unwillingness of the “host”. In the “green” area usually there is a complete lack of infrastructure – transport, health, education. What is the point to run from the virus in the village, if you will not help even with a banal cold or a fracture. But even if you close your eyes and it work on remote will not work due to weak Internet or lack thereof.
What has changed now? And nothing. The economy of villages and small towns are not ready to provide visitors work. Therefore, a person who moves, have to “carry” a work from the metropolis or to use the village.
the last Few years can be seen as a thin “stream” of people leaving big cities. But hardly anyone of them begins to engage in agriculture. Most people work remotely – for example, programmers, writers. But they still provides a big city.
– Experience udalenka – very ambiguous. After the decline of the euphoria that accompanied the mass Exodus from the offices to the isolation, we conducted a study. And it turned out poignant the soul of the detail, – says Igor Zadorin. – Yes, many production processes can be inferred from office. But, it turns out, people have a very serious need for social contact, direct communication. Human nature resists the transition to “Autonomous” work. Many have missed around the office and colleagues. Besides adults suddenly found themselves in a situation when the house at the same time turned into the office, kindergarten and school. This situation has brought joy to a very small number of our respondents. In many cases, people experience increased discomfort, stress turning into depression.
Revealing the reaction of the students. At first, the young people rejoiced in distance education, and now from them comes a sharp protest. Due to the lack of communication (at least with the teachers) it turns nedoobrazovaniem.
There is another non-obvious thing is the loss of reputational status. It turns out that citizens regard a possible move as an admission of failure. Especially those who in due time arrived in Moscow for achievements – not only for the new level of life and success. To return to the province, and especially in the village is, as revealed in the survey still admit himself a failure, a loser.
the Village should not only be ecological, infrastructural and comfortable, and prestigious. And this is not, in the foreseeable future is not expected. So, it is not intended and mass Exodus of citizens, – concluded Igor Zadorin.
