The epidemic of coronavirus in Russia can hardly affect the level of inequality in the country, according to the Higher school of Economics (HSE). To avoid its growth helped by the government support measures of the population, however, even with this reduction of their incomes will be avoided only to the richest citizens of the Russian Federation. The dynamics of inequality in subjective assessments even more unpredictable, and in ordinary life, it is little affected by objective indicators.Inequality in Russia can remain almost unchanged even after the epidemic of the coronavirus in the country — such conclusions can be drawn from the HSE Bulletin “Economic and social consequences of coronavirus in Russia and in the world.” The author of the forecast estimates the level of inequality is leading researcher of the Center for studies of income and living standards, Daria Popova, on the basis of the modeling scenarios with the restrictions of social and business activity and fiscal policy measures taken in January—may 2020.As the work, the economic downturn in the pandemic may lead to a slight increase inequality in society compared to the 2019 year. If in 2020 implemented a moderate forecast of the world Bank for Russia (GDP drop by 6%, the reduction of per capita income from employment 8%), that characterize the level of income inequality, the Gini index compared to the year 2019 for the Russian Federation will not change and will continue to be 0,411. In a negative scenario of development of economy (decline in GDP of 9.6%, decrease in average income from employment by 12%), the Gini index can increase up to 0,414. Without the adoption of a number of measures to support the population in the first case, the Gini index would have grown to 0,421, and the second — to 0,426 that, in the opinion of the author of the study, suggests that the maximum impact have they had on the poorest strata of the Russian population. However, under moderate scenario of falling incomes for a representative of any decile group would account for about 2%, and at negative 4%. In the first case, the growth of income can only see the first (+ 7%) and second (+1) decile groups, the representatives of the first (+5%). Taking into account the composition of households in a better position under moderate scenario would be having in its composition two or three and more children (+2% and +3% respectively), while the negative — only the last (+1%).Although in light of the prospect of rising inequality, it was fixed at the same level can be considered positive, in the course of past economic crises in Russia, the level of inequality even without the efforts of the state decreased. However, while, according to the statement of the International monetary Fund, the increase in inequality is waiting most of the countries affected by the pandemic, and the situation in Russia is not unique. At the same time Russia could face an unexpected perception of the dynamics of inequality themselves�� population. In ordinary life, as shown by the work of the experts of the HSE, Vladimir Gillson and Evgeny Chernin, two-thirds of Russians are inclined in their estimates to understate their own income, and 20% to inflate. Also, although the majority of Russians believe that they live in a country with a very unequal distribution of income, they put themselves in the middle of the income distribution. These data allow the authors of the study suggest that when assessing population mobility in the income scale have a value of subjective rather than objective assessment — they are not very susceptible to outside influence. However, the economic crisis caused by the epidemic of the coronavirus, can hardly be called traditional for any society; to predict right now, as a result it will estimate the position of the Russians, is almost impossible.Anastasia Manuylova
