Kommersant managed to familiarize with the project of the development strategy of “inter RAO” by 2030. The company has completely abandoned expansion into foreign markets, focusing on Russian business, which intends to invest up to 1 trillion rubles for ten years. Most of the funds can go to purchase energy assets, including renewable energy generation, and the construction of new and modernization of old thermal power plants. In the end, “inter RAO” expects to increase EBITDA by 2030, more than double to 320 billion rubles. thus, contrary to the expectations of investors, the company intends to maintain the current conservative dividend policy.On 28 July, the Committee on strategy and investment “inter RAO” reviewed the company’s development strategy until 2025 with a vision to 2030, told “Kommersant” sources familiar with the discussion document. On 31 July the issue will be submitted to the Board of Directors. The previous version of the strategy — 2020 was adopted in 2010.In the new strategy of “inter RAO” expects more than double growth of EBITDA — to 210 billion rubles in 2025 and 320 billion rubles in 2030, compared to 142 billion in 2019. To do this, the company is ready to invest up to 500 billion rubles of investments until 2025 and up to 1 trillion rubles in the next ten years. As explained by one of the interlocutors “Kommersant”, most of the funds will go to the M&A transactions, as the company wants to “spend more money on quick investments that will give growth in EBITDA”. The “inter RAO” — state-controlled, but formally not state-owned — will continue to give shareholders at least 25% of IFRS net income, which is less than 50%, which requires state-owned companies, the Ministry of Finance. We will remind, “inter RAO” 27,63% of the shares belongs to the state “Rosneftegaz” another 29.6% is quasiclassically package, 8,6% — in the Federal grid company (part of “Russian grids”) is a free-float of 34.2%.In “inter RAO” announced that the strategy is not approved, all comments will be given after its approval.According to interlocutors “Kommersant”, in the new strategy of “inter RAO UES” — the only Russian operator of export-import of electricity — will continue to curtail overseas activities. Over the past few years, the company actively sold foreign assets, coming for example from Armenia’s electricity grid and selling the generation in Kazakhstan. The company also expects a reduction in volume of foreign trade operations doubled from 20.9 billion kWh in 2019 to just over 12.2 billion kWh in 2025 and 10.2 billion kWh by 2030. This is probably due to the release of the Baltic States from the electricity grid in BRELL by 2025, as well as the possible introduction of a carbon tax in the EU.To strengthen its position in the segment of power generation “inter RAO” wants through participation in the program of modernization of old thermal power plants, as well as the construction of facilities for the mechanism of competitive selection of capacity of the new generation (IO NG). Probably talking about the construction ��ES with the participation of the experimental high-power turbines: the company is going to participate in the selection of projects for 2026-2028 years, and the turbines are expected to deliver “Power machines”, said the source “Kommersant”. “Inter RAO” is also developing its own turbine JV with American GE. In addition, the company does not rule out the purchase of stakes in generation companies and individual power plants. In addition, the draft strategy for the first time mentioned the possibility of investment in construction or purchase of RES-generation, participation in projects of distributed generation, storage devices. The contribution of the generation segment in EBITDA, the company plans to grow from 75 billion rubles in 2019 to 245 billion rubles in 2030, and revenue — with 230 billion rubles in 2019 to 828 billion rubles. the development Potential of the company in the thermal segment of “inter RAO” is defined as a “low”, while not excluding the possibility of leaving the heat distribution assets if necessary. In General, the company will go here by the standard route — go to rates by the method of “an alternative boiler unit”, reference rates, and long-term direct contracts with consumers. The author also discusses the option of combining teplosbytovaya and sales activities. Much higher “inter RAO” estimates the retail segment of the business, expecting that its EBITDA will grow by 64% to RUB 41 billion by 2030, the revenue — 66%, to 1.28 trillion rubles “inter RAO” expects to increase its share in the segment as a whole across the Russian Federation from 18% to 20% by 2030.Vladimir Sklyar from “VTB Capital” notes that in the near ten-year “inter RAO” is betting on growth through investment. Investors, in his opinion, offers a steadily growing history without jerks and falls. Thus, the company eliminates significant foreign expansion, cautious approach to the balance of investment and dividends, with emphasis on the segments in which has obvious advantages, the traditional generation and distribution. If “inter RAO” will achieve the target for growth in EBITDA to 210 billion rubles by 2025, then, according to Mr. Sklar, will retain its status as the most profitable company in the Russian power industry.Tatiana Datasoruce the draft strategy, the holding company plans to retain the current structure of shareholders. But your quasicanonical package the company can use in attracting a strategic investor or as payment in M&A transactions, as well as in the option program for top management. Last in the draft document, but its parameters are not clearly marked. Previously, access to it is restricted only to key managers, the form of remuneration — stock option, cash. The lock up period (during which you cannot sell shares) is three to five years. The main indicators KPI standard is the return on the share (TSR, total shareholder return), the dynamics of the net cash flows��and implementation of strategic priorities. According to one of interlocutors“”, optional program will be launched before the end of the year, as the base will use the weighted average capitalisation for the six months — the company, which is about RUB 6 per share. Tatiana Woodpecker
