While owners and retailers targetrow loudly questioned the relationship in a pandemic, the office market without fanfare, a new anti-crisis trend. Contrary to the fears of owners of business centers, tenants are not began to break a contract, and began to sublease the vacated area. These surpluses, many companies appeared after the optimization of personnel or transfers of employees for an indefinite time for freelance work.Some employees of the Moscow representative office of PepsiCo after the final lifting of all restrictions in force at the time of self-isolation, will be offered a free office visit, told “Kommersant” several HR consultants familiar with the situation. According to one of them, such employees will be able to visit the office to participate in live talks and meetings. In parallel, the Corporation has suspended the implementation of drawn up before the crisis plan for the expansion of the state, says another source “b”. These two factors have enabled PepsiCo to reduce to 10% (almost 1 thousand sq m) of office space in the business center Alcon at metro Sokol in the North of Moscow, he says. To receive comments at PepsiCo failed.According to one of the consultants in the real estate market, PepsiCo, signing a few years ago, a long-term contract with the owner of the object — Tactics Group, managed to enter the place, allowing corporations just starting in 2020 without penalty to withdraw from part of the occupied areas. Typically, leases a large amount of office spaces are signed for five to ten years: the longer the term, the more preferences, the tenant can achieve. Now the owner will have to find a new tenant for the vacant space in the business centre, where the average rate is 30 thousand rubles per year.But not all companies are reducing on the background of the pandemic office space, you can just abandon them. In the beginning of the crisis it turned out that the structures within the development group PEAK or controlled after the optimization of staff can be freed a total of 14 thousand square meters in the business centers, “Sirius Park” and “Dawn”. Early termination of the contracts is threatened with fines and the PIC decided to take them in the sublease. This approach will allow the company to save about 350 million rubles per year, estimated by the respondents “Kommersant” consultants.According to them, to sublease space in the business Park “Nagatino-iLand”, vacant after the transfer of the head office staff on udalenku, plans and Raiffeisenbank. Also going to do the Qiwi payment service with space in business centre in Chertanovo in southern Moscow.Nothing lishnego for optimization many companies, expenditures for the rental of offices in major business centers even in prestigious areas of the capital became available for sublease units of 300-500 sq. m, fromsaid the Director of the office real estate Department at Knight Frank Maria Zimina. Sublease — one of the variants of a constructive relationship between the counterparties, the Director of Department of office real estate at Colliers International Natalia Bonneli. In her opinion, this strategy enabled the segment to avoid the current crisis of high-profile scandals seen in commercial real estate.Targetrow owners and retailers during the entire period of validity of mode isolation was publicly accused each other of unwillingness to make concessions. In the end, the owners were able to achieve a compromise for the amendments to the legislation allowing ahead of time unilaterally and without penalties to break contracts with tenants from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Such counterparties torgtsentrov, according to various estimates, no more than 25%.Amendments were made and the owners of business centers, deserted during the regime of isolation. But they are less likely to have a negative impact on the office market. High quality square off large Russian and international companies more resilient in times of crisis, convinced the lady Bonneli.COO Space 1 (controls flexible offices) Pavel Fedorov, citing Gartner research, says that after the lifting of all restrictions in force at the time of mode isolation, remotely will continue to work to 20% of employees. “However, even this is reason enough to think about changing the size and format of their offices,” he adds. A new reality with a remote work will make the sublease the medium-term trend on the office market, if the peak of the crisis will take place in the forecast period — in the spring of 2021, says partner at Cushman & Wakefield Natalia Nikitina.As a result, the sub-lease market will be a lot of vacant space in business centers class A, which typically are located in major business clusters in Moscow. Owners of such facilities due to high debt load is not ready to give significant rental discounts, and current tenants will have to look for those who can retake the vacated area, said Ms. Nikitina. According to her, the owners of the class b offices are more willing to meet contractors. They understand that emerged as anti-crisis measures of the sub-lease market is forcing them to fight for tenants.The place is never byvalue one emerged in this crisis trend growth of demand from tenants in flexible offices, where you can find several companies and each may, if necessary, to increase or reduce the number of jobs. The rent period is very short — from one month.The demand for such space caused by the search companies alternatives to long-term leases, as the current situation of uncertainty, reduced planning horizons, said Pavel Fedorov. In this case the tenants for the sake of saving do not want to bear the capital cost for the design, repair and office equipment. “This has led to increased demand for flexible offices, which, according to our internal forecasts for the year could grow by 50%,”— says the expert.Besides the obvious savings, this format allows you to tailor the office space under the new job requirements arising from the pandemic. “For companies that have revised the corporate culture based on social responsibility, will require flexible tools in the conversion of open-space in the individual venues and back”,— considers the partner of the Laboratory career of Alena Vladimirskaya and HR consultant Anna Alfimova.In her opinion, in the foreseeable future requests of companies for office space will likely relate to the availability of jobs for employees close to their home. Employers will begin to withdraw the entire floors in one business center and several smaller sites in different areas of the city, where they will “work hubs” for employees, the consultant adds.Work at home is not always effective and comfortable from the point of view of work organization. In such a situation, employers may compensate employees for working in remote format, the costs for the rent of the seats in coworking, respondents believe “b” HR-consultants.Until this trend slows down lack of such facilities in residential areas, but developers have paid attention to the problem. So, “A101 development” Mikhail Gutseriev announced the creation of a network of coworking Easy Busy on the first floors of their buildings. On the same project announced Level Group of ex-Senator Vadim Moshkovich. Managing Director, network of coworking SOK Mikhail Brodnikov said that the relevant operators are interesting premises on the first floors of large apartment complexes, whose total area reaches to 150-200 thousand sq. m. With a stock prochnosti General office market while calmly going through the current crisis, according to commercial Director of O1 Properties (the largest in Moscow, the owner of the business centers) Pavel barbashev. According to him, in spite of numerous speculations, the large companies are in no hurry to radically change the strategy and continue to rent quality offices. The office market faced the crisis “with an adequate margin of safety”, says the head of research at JLL Vladislav Fadeev.”For example,— says Mr. barbashev, in the midst of a regime of self-isolation we closed two deals to lease space in business centers Lighthouse and the White square”. In the same period, “Tinkoff” rented 80 thousand square meters in the business centre and the AFI Square on gruzinskiy Val, and “Mail of Russia” agreed to remove 37 square �� offices in the complex “WEB arena”.In the pre-crisis period, the office segment in the input space lagged behind other sectors of the commercial real estate market. So, in 2019, Moscow entered 400 thousand sq m a year earlier — a total of 100 thousand sq. m. It echoes the crisis of 2014, when developers offices began to refuse new projects.But what did the market business centers by outsider in time of peace, saved him in the crisis. “The current situation is characterized by the shortage of quality supply, especially of large office blocks, so, unlike the crises of 2008 and 2014, now we are fixing the low level of vacant space,”— says Mr. Fadeev.According to him, for a pandemic the office segment of Moscow came up with a vacancy rate of 10.5%. By the spring of 2021, this figure, according to JLL forecasts, will increase by only 3 percentage points. The reason — the low volume is scheduled to enter space. Now in Moscow, built about 350 thousand square meters of offices. For comparison, in the crisis of 2014 was empty for about 13.9 per cent of premises in business centers and a year later about 17%, and in 2008 — 18%. At the same rental rates, despite the crisis, remain practically stationary: according to the consultants, in early June, they ranged from 25 thousand to 35 thousand rbl. for 1 sq. m. Almost the same values before the beginning of the pandemic.Investors, despite low vacancy and the presence of demand, yet also took a wait and see attitude, said senior Director of office Agency, CBRE Elena Denisova. It assumes that the volume of new transactions in 2020 can be reduced to about 650 thousand sq. m. should Not expect a drastic change of the existing players of the office market. “Hardly appears distress assets that might be of interest to investors, says Ms. Denisova.— Moreover, previous crises have significantly cleaned the ranks of developers and owners of commercial real estate”.Elizaveta Makarova, Khalil Amine
