Alexander kuptsikevich, FxPro senior analyst, specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta:
– the Russian ruble was fairly stable last week, while far from the level of 86 euros and 73 per dollar. “While the thunder will not clap, the peasant will not cross” – approximately so it is possible to characterize the stability of the Russian currency, while neighbouring emerging markets, dark clouds.
the Turkish Lira under pressure from sellers returned to the rewriting lows against the dollar and many other currencies at the end of the week. It is important to understand that against Turkey now almost empty reserves, extremely loose monetary policy, and growing conflict with the EU because of gas drilling on the continental shelf in the vicinity of Cyprus.
Protests in Belarus and do not think to subside by the end of the week began to affect the money market of the country. The value of the bonds of Belarus came down after a series of sanctions threatened by EU leaders.
Technically, the ruble has nothing to fear, as the budget figures in Russia are impressive, including a record volume of international reserves, low interest rates on public debt and its low volume. However, sustained capital outflows from other emerging markets is ignored by the participants of the Russian market only temporarily.
Very soon, while maintaining these negative trends may be a re-evaluation of the markets for all EM countries. In principle, the Belarusian ruble has a long-term downward trend against the dollar, which weakened in the previous two years, but again became relevant in 2020. Despite some weakening BYN from the end of July, with the beginning of the year he has lost 16% against the dollar compared to 18% weakening of the RUB.
Previous episode of collapse of the Turkish Lira was exactly two years ago. Then, the ruble weakened by more than 10% in five weeks against 50% collapse of the Lira. However, then the fall of the ruble spurred sanctions risks. However, this issue may manifest at this time.
Next week may be critical for the Russian ruble. The easing of tension in the markets of Turkey and Belarus is able to bring buyers to Russian ruble. Against the Euro it dipped significantly in recent weeks and looks loaded for a rebound. In this case, the Euro may finally fall below 85 and to continue easing in the coming months, and the dollar – to fall under of 72.5.
However, in case of further escalation of the political pressure as around Turkey and Belarus, the ruble may go into a phase of active attenuation. In such a scenario cannot be ruled out touch the mark of 90 rubles per Euro, and 77 rubles to the dollar.