the Theme of creating a “gas OPEC” raised the head of Ministry Alexander Novak. In his words, “more discussions about how to start a practice in the oil industry.” The Minister is convinced that the main reason for the current chaos in the global gas market – the absence of the regulator. Accordingly, the producing countries have to agree on the establishment of a single coordinating body similar to oil OPEC.
However, the idea is not new: with varying degrees of intensity, they have been discussed at least since the beginning of 2000-ies. Now, given the serious geopolitical risks, a hard confrontation with major energy players, the chances of its implementation rather illusory than tangible.
Speaking at the meeting of the discussion club “Valdai”, Novak recalled the existence of the Forum of gas exporting countries (GECF), which many tend to see the equivalent of OPEC. In fact, this body is purely Advisory and does not regulate gas production volumes in the world. And the market, the Minister believes, needs structure, which effectively solved the problems of volatility, pricing, imbalance of supply and demand.
GECF brings together 12 leading gas producers, including Russia, Qatar, Iran, Venezuela, and seven observer countries, including Norway and Kazakhstan. The organization was founded in 2001 in Tehran, and legally issued on 23 December 2008 in Moscow where energy Ministers of States parties adopted its Charter and signed an intergovernmental agreement.
GECF was reflected as an analogue of OPEC, to be able to affect the price of “blue fuel”. But in the end she’s going once a year, functions as a harmless Advisory platform, and not as a cartel. In 2008, the then Deputy Chairman of the Committee on foreign Affairs, house of representatives, U.S. Congress, Ileana Rose-Lehtinen said that the creation of gas cartel will be regarded as a deliberate threat to America. Meanwhile, the idea of “procrastinate” for so long that to abandon it is already indecent.
“Attempts to create a “gas OPEC” are not the first decade, but so far without success. A Forum of the countries-exporters of reminds me of the student scientific society: sat, discussed, reviewed, exchanged predicted estimates, fled. From the point of view of the regulatory impact on the market, its value is negligible” – says a leading expert of Institute of modern development Nikita Maslennikov.
At the same time, the situation for many manufacturers is becoming critical. Because the demand for gas until the end of the year will remain low: 6-7 million barrels per day less than in 2019.
in General, says Maslennikov, global gas market conditions today are significantly worse than oil. The downward price trend is more pronounced. Destabilization, cashlessirovka is happening in Europe and in Russia and in the Asia-Pacific region. Latest contracts for the supply of Russian gas to China was unusually cheap.
the Problem is that the prices are pushing the contradictions between the two markets – pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The LNG market – spot and is determined not long contracts, and the current supply and demand. Russia regularly faced with cases where spot prices for LNG in Europe fell sharply in comparison with its pipeline gas. At the present time – exactly the kind of situation that has already turned to selling Russian gas in Europe, Gazprom’s multibillion-dollar losses.
the interests of the producer countries often differ radically, and to create a “gas OPEC”, it is necessary to drive “all the spiders in a jar”, a complex geopolitical maneuvers. Besides, Russia is not the main gas. While we strongly beat other manufacturers: Qatar, USA and Australia. And Qatar because of the large volume of production can dump in all of the markets are controlled. The idea of a “gas OPEC”, he seems to support, but Russia will have with him the subject to negotiate.
But with the Americans we have a hard collision on all issues, says Maslennikov. First, States quite smartly to promote your LNG Europe, especially in Poland, where he built the corresponding terminals. Second, they are obsessed with the idea to block the project “Northern stream-2”. What kind of dialogue with them at the “gas OPEC” can we talk? – asks the rhetorical question the expert.
In the gas market has become more competitive due to the large-scale supply of LNG to Europe and Asia from the USA, Qatar and Australia, echoed Maslennikov, head of the analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. In this regard, the share of pipeline gas (mainly from Russia), gradually reduced, and the price of LNG to fall to record levels compared to the previous year, they decreased in three times in that time, both pipeline gas from “Gazprom” fell by half. “The global gas industry has faced the same problems as oil: oversupply, increased competition, a drop in prices. Therefore, the market needs a regulator that will be able to prevent the price of chaos. Obviously. Another question is whether he will appear,” – said the expert.
