in addition, there is a danger that as soon as the quotes of a barrel will go up and reach certain values, for example $ 40, the country is not officially involved in the transaction and not associated with any obligations, but supported her at the peak of falling of the prices will begin to increase production, which again will lead to spikes in food prices.
the oil Price has not reacted to the entry into force of the agreement OPEC and even slightly decreased. As the information about the deal on production cuts was played long before that. The actual impact on the market it will be able to provide in the best case by the end of may provided favorable conditions. Moreover, the latter refers to only a gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions because of coronavirus in the world. Any other news, even positive for the oil market, will be lost on the background of the expansion of the pandemic and reduce this business activity.
Optimistic predictions say that 40 dollars per barrel price can go up at the end of this year. Recently, 5-6 years, technology for shale and offshore production has moved forward strongly, and this level of oil prices will enable you to resume many stopped production in the USA, Canada, Norway and the UK. That is, in the beginning of 2021, we can get a repeat of the last deal the OPEC+, when the efforts of its members offset by increased production in other countries.
Then it was the main destructive factor, not allowing, no, don’t raise the price to $ 100 per barrel, but simply to stabilize them at least $ 60. In fact, OPEC+ then pulled the chestnuts out of the fire to other oil producers, and that this was the main reason for the collapse of the first deal. Similarly, this might be the main reason for the differences is now very cohesive supporters of reduced production.
the Oil market after the end of the pandemic (should it ever come to an end) for a long time will move away from its consequences, perhaps even longer than other segments of the world economy at least, because up to her not in the best condition. The danger of the next peak in oil prices will persist for some time and, apparently, for this reason, the current transaction OPEC+ lies in the unprecedented long period until may 2022. And if the agreement is concluded, much will depend on the discipline of complying with its terms.
According to the analyst of “Finam” Alexey Kalachev, the main thing that is necessary for the recovery of oil demand, there is a way out of quarantine and global economic recovery. But when demand starts to recover, it is necessary to retain the agreed actions of participants of the OPEC+. “You can always meet and discuss the correction SOGlasenia. His gap would have led again to a loss of control over the market, today it is understood by all,” – said the expert.
