a Fifth of the Federal budget will be spent on transfers to the Pension Fund of Russia. In 2021 the proceeds to the pension Fund from the Treasury will increase by 1 trillion rubles, it follows from the main budget characteristics of the Fund. The pandemic deepened the deficit: cuts and wage cuts have reduced the income of the Fund. It turns out that the earlier increase in the retirement age – under the sign of the need to reduce the deficit of the pension Fund – were in vain: the “hole” in the pension system is growing. “MK” tried to find out how this financial situation threatens current and future retirees.
PAYG pension system is less than 60% provides itself: 4,12 trillion of of 9.67 trillion in revenue FIU will provide next year’s Federal budget.
Recall that in the pre-crisis version of the draft budget of the FIU in 2021 it was assumed that Federal support will increase by 768 billion rubles from the Federal Treasury. In the revised project increased to $ 992 billion rubles. In 2022 and 2023, Federal transfers will grow even more – FIU will receive 4.3 trillion rubles annually. Thus, the share of Federal subsidies in the budget Fund will amount to about 42%, although beginning in 2017, the dependence of the FIU of the national budget declined from 45 to 36%.
the income of the budget of Russia is rapidly declining due to low oil prices. In 2020, the Treasury deficit may be about 5.6 trillion rubles instead of the previously planned surplus of 900 billion rubles. The expenditure budget for this year and next year it is planned to fix at the level of 19.7 trillion proposed national economic recovery plan. Then transfer to FIU 4.3 trillion is almost 21% in the expenditures of the Federal Treasury.
FIU Position has deteriorated against the background of coronaries and the introduction of anti-crisis measures. The government has lowered the rate of insurance contributions from 30 to 15% of salaries above the minimum wage for small and medium-sized businesses. The contribution rate to the Pension Fund for small and medium-sized enterprises decreased from 22 to 10% of salary. Because of this, FIU next year will not be counted 387 billion roubles, of them and compensate from the Federal budget.
“the Pension Fund of Russia receives income from insurance premiums and asset sales, but these revenues are not enough to cover the deficit, – said the Deputy head of IATS of “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova. – But not enough, partly because, according to some estimates, about one third of Russians are “gray” wages and underpaid contributions to the pension Fund. So to make up for its budget deficit the Pension Fund refers to the state which he lists the transfers from the Federal Treasury”.
the Budget of the FIU in recent years have been scarce. “The deficit is still not too critical to have any problems with pension payments, but still quite significant: in 2019 it part��l approximately 0.25% of GDP, and almost 40% of its costs covered through transfers from the state budget. To improve the situation it was intended to raise the retirement age. By calculations of authors of the pension reform, in the future, the deficit of the FIU was not supposed to be critical so that the state in a “perfect” day would no longer fulfill the obligations on payment of pensions”, – said the expert.
However, as now becomes clear, the retirement age in the country raised in vain: the budget deficit of the FIU not only does not decrease, and grows rapidly. Accordingly, an increasing share of all Federal revenues should be directed to the maintenance of current retirees. The pace on the agenda the question may arise about the new increase in the retirement age: for example, to 67.
However, according to Milchakova, as pension reform is already being implemented, it is unlikely that the age for zaslujennyi rest will move even higher to cover the deficit of the budget of the FIU. “On the contrary, if the state, thanks to the program of the parent capital and adopted in the current year to support families with children, will be able eventually to overcome the negative demographic trends, it is possible that the retirement age will be reduced. This scenario in the near future unrealistic, but possible in the future. Anyway this option is more real than even more significant increase in age of retirement,” concluded our interlocutor.