the Actual termination of the quarantine measures is a return to the “bright past”. According to the statistics of Rosstat, in the first half of 2020 more than a third of Russian companies worked at a loss: into a spin, left the production and distribution of gas, rail transport, postal services and courier delivery. Many companies undermined the economic base. They are still afloat, but the exhaustion of opportunities can happen from day to day. For this reason, unemployment will rise and real incomes for the year may fall by 6-7%. According to the latest data, the number unemployed for about 4.6 million people.
According to Rosstat, in the sector of big business most affected by the pandemic began mining companies. For 5 months of 2020, the loss increased 8.6 times. This is due to the sharp decline in energy prices and limitation of oil production by OPEC agreement+. The manufacturing industry has increased the loss by 2.7 times due to quarantine restrictions on the movement of people. This has led to the suspension of operation of enterprises, and reduced consumer demand because of lower incomes. The share of unprofitable organizations in the country in January–may 2020 rose to 36%.
it is Important that was not included in the report of Rosstat, namely, the situation in SMEs. It is more focused on the end user, which massively deprived and movements, and income.
“Statistics is incomplete and does not reflect the situation in those industries which have suffered the most from outbreaks of coronavirus infection and the introduction of economic constraints. In the first place — companies from the tourism, hospitality and transportation, later joined the company of sphere of public catering and entertainment services”, — says the Chairman of the CCP “Update” Mikhail Dorofeyev.
Indirectly, their difficult position indicated by statistics of the Central Bank, according to which about one-third of the loan indebtedness of such enterprises, which are included in the government list as the most affected, was restructurethe. At the peak of momentum in may, small business dipped overall, 32.6%, according Sberindex.
“In the country, sharply increased unemployment, which rose in June 2020 to 6.2%, while the previous year was 4.4%. Since the beginning of the pandemic crisis have lost work more than 1 million people,” — emphasizes the chief analyst of TeleTrade mark Goikhman.
At the same time, according to experts, in the second half the situation will be easier than in the peak of the epidemic. But return to “dependenices” levels of production, employment is not expected for many months.
First Vice-President of “OPORA Russia” Paul Segal believes that the sector will recover unevenly. “In the best situation of catering establishments, with summer terraces. The tourism sector will take some time to recover, he said. — Bankruptcy awaits those companies that are unable to switch to remote mode and accumulated a large debt long before the crisis.”
There is a misconception that those who went online, as a result of the crisis were on horseback. If you look at the real sector, the situation is very poor: even large retailers with well-tuned channels of the sale of goods on the Internet reported an overall drop in revenue, despite the increase in online sales. What to speak about less large players. Back in may, in RAUIE conducted a survey, in which about 30% of companies said they plan to cut staff and wages at least 15% reduced to 40-50% of respondents.
“the Peak of the bankruptcies and corporate defaults have in the fall: today, many companies are still trying to survive on the “accumulated fat” or for loans, including state support, but it is clear that demand has not recovered in all sectors or in all directions”, — said the President of Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs Vitaly Mankevich.
