Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of strategy IK “FINAM”, called factors, which in the medium term will create opportunities for strengthening of the Russian currency:
– In the near future dynamics of the ruble, most likely, will not be unexpected shocks, – the expert believes. – The price of Brent crude continues to consolidate in the range of 42.8 to 43.8 USD per barrel, which once again shows a temporary balance of the carbon market. Even online the OPEC conference+ was quite calm and neutral for the quotations of oil.
you should Also take into account the publication of the Central Bank of Russia “to review the risks of the financial markets of Bank of Russia”. In the document the regulator noted the tendency of reduction of short positions of market participants on the ruble on the currency swaps during the period from may to June. And it can also be interpreted as a signal of stabilization of the situation, but on the Russian currency market. And the lower expectations that a possible sharp volatility spikes course.
on Thursday, investors ‘ attention was focused on the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). Christine Lagarde in her speech said that he expects the recovery in economic activity in the Eurozone in the third quarter. Against this background, the regulator has kept interest rates unchanged.
However, the recovery of the European economy amid rising cases of coronavirus in the United States tips the scales towards further strengthening of the Euro against the dollar. In such a situation, a logical idea for investors is the solution to make a bet on either the Euro or the ruble, which in the medium term (next six months) to support the Russian currency.
However, in the short-term horizon some pressure on the quotes of the ruble may have a completion in July of the dividend season. Conversion by non-residents received dividends of rouble in the currency are quite capable of some increase trend to the weakening, but given the volume, to the correction of the ruble is unlikely.
Based on the current dynamics, it can be expected that the currency pair dollar/ruble konsolidiruyutsya around 71.0 per.
the Dynamics of the Euro/ruble implies movement towards the resistance, which runs at the level of 81.5. And in the coming days we can expect a retest of this level. But the most likely scenario is the consolidation of this currency pair is within the range 79,5-81,5.
