on 20 July in Georgia officially kicked off the election campaign. October 31, Georgians will elect a new Parliament, and new elections will be held according to the following formula: 120 deputies are elected on party lists and 30 – in majority districts. In addition, the threshold for representation of parties in Parliament decreased and is now only 1% (previously 3%).
the Meaning of these changes is clear to all in Georgia. The reform of the Georgian electoral system was held under direct pressure from the West, primarily Americans. They need to at all began to push through the Parliament its half dead “sons of bitches” – the United national movement of Mikhail Saakashvili in his new incarnations (as you know, the party split, and from it spun off the European Georgia). The new model election gives “national” opportunity they otherwise would be denied.
However, when dealing with the “nationals”, the scenario can be any. In early June the former Minister of economic development of Georgia, a close ally of Saakashvili, Giorgi Arveladze urged Georgians to prepare for the elections to the Parliament, and the revolution and organization of the resistance groups. Before to take the post of Minister, the latter had visited the General Secretary of the party “United National movement”, the press-Secretary Saakashvili and his chief of staff. That is, if you say that the mouth of the latter says Saakashvili himself, it is perhaps no exaggeration.
the Shadow Governor of Georgia, founder and head of the ruling party tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili in his speech at the presentation ceremony of the party of majority-candidates from the “Georgian dream” said that “these people (supporters of Saakashvili, M. P.) the most important is the seizure of power and the wages for the eight years of freedom that we all together found, putting the country on the path of democratic development”.
So what can we expect from the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia? How real revenge Saakashvili? We talked to a political scientist, leading researcher of the Center for Caucasus and regional security MGIMO Nikolay Silaev.
– I Think the “Georgian dream” too early to write off. – said the analyst. They have a chance to remain the ruling party. However, they may for the formation of the government will have to enter into Alliance with other parties. But with whom? “European Georgia” and “National movement” to attract as partners – is a loss of face, loss of voter confidence. Because for many years the “Georgian dream” wins elections under the slogan “God forbid, returned to the nationals”. And it worked. If to speak about the Alliance of patriots or party Nino Burjanadze, these forces in Georgia declared a “Pro”. Engaging with them in a coalition, the dreamers run the risk of ZARwear the same label. And this is dangerous for them, as this will have a negative reaction to “the Washington constituency”, the main district of Georgia. Even the “dreamers” in their anti-Russian rhetoric is no different from the “nationals”. And this course will look strange in the eyes of voters.
– is it Possible unconstitutional developments and returning to Georgia Saakashvili?
– you have the option when it will arrive and lead the indignant masses to storm the Palace of Ivanishvili? It’s a bunch of baloney. Not to say that people in Georgia today are waiting for change at any cost. You don’t mobilize people in the right for this scale. Personal plans of Saakashvili do not matter. I’m not sure that the revolution in Georgia today need the United States. In my opinion, our superiors just about Saakashvili fad. Well, back to Saakashvili, what? The current Georgian authorities differ from Saakashvili in the best way from the Russian point of view only because they don’t start a war. Thank you.
– And Russia is still, what will be the outcome of the election?
– Not all the same. But in Russia, there is a very clear understanding of what Georgia can do, and what not. There’s an old saying that one man may lead a horse to the river, a few people can shove her face in the water, but no power in the world will not force her to drink if she doesn’t want to drink. Russia is open for normalization of relations with Georgia. There is an understanding that the level of economic cooperation with Georgia does not correspond to the level of political cooperation? Is. And then – as with these people talking about? Russia’s position is very rational. Georgia was caught in his own political rhetoric. They brought up the fact that no Georgian politician can’t talk with Moscow without being accused of betrayal of his country. The “Georgian dream” from the very beginning, there was no approach towards Russia. In foreign policy, they copied the approach of the United national movement. And now they can’t negotiate with Moscow.
Where is the Russian “soft power”? Why isn’t she in Georgia builds their structures of influence?
– the Question is not that Russia there built or not built. And the fact that the Georgian politicians of relations with Russia is absolutely indispensable and unique resource that they cannot use. There is a part of the path, which will be held in Georgian politics. Russian politicians do not go this path for them. People who are engaged in Russian foreign policy towards Georgia, understand it very well. Why Georgia is not admitted to NATO? Because its value for NATO is actually negative. It is a country that regardless of inside itand or outside NATO, to protect themselves can not. Georgia is on the verge of a serious economic crisis. The tourist season almost over, there is no money. People lost a lot during the quarantine. You want us in it is the money invested?
– That is, the prospects of turning Georgia into friendly Russia the state do not exist?
– After we have recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the foreseeable future we will not be able to be for Georgia a friendly state. Because for all Georgians this is a fundamental issue. This situation is fatal. Therefore, to make Georgia a friendly state is an unrealistic goal. Georgia can’t create any serious threat for the Russian Federation. All decisions on military development in the case of Georgia’s accession to NATO has been adopted and implemented. And then – simple arithmetic. The scale of resources you must expend to change the foreign policy orientation of Georgia, on the one hand, and on the other the value of this change in the conditions, when with military security and everything is in order. We have two military bases in the Caucasus mountains. We have a military predominance in the Black sea. Why waste resources on changing the foreign policy orientation of Georgia? God be with her.
