the Bank of Russia may even lower, to lower its key interest rate, but you need to evaluate the “multitude of factors”, said the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina after a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank. It was decided to lower the rate by 0.25% to a historical low of 4.25%. Low key rate, stimulates the reduction of credit and mortgage rates, but does not guarantee it. Interviewed by “MK” experts told longer loans to be very heavy bondage for the Russians.
Since April, the Central Bank lowers key rate, easing monetary policy for economic recovery. On the key rate, banks loans from the Central Bank: the lower it is, the more profitable it should be lending to all categories of borrowers. And stimulated the economy.
After the June meeting, the rate reached a minimum for all history of its existence, and the July decision of the Board of Directors further strengthened the decline. In June, the Central Bank changed the rate by 1% – from 5.5% to 4.5%, for the current leadership of the regulator atypical big step. Typically, the controller changes the rate by 0.25%.
“We came to our standard step in changing the key rate, given that we need more fine-tuning of monetary policy. In the situation of the previous months was justified more decisive response,” said Elvira.
the head of the Central Bank did not rule out more rate cuts before the end of the year. However, for decision making, the regulator will assess the effect of the past reduction, the nature of recovery processes in the economy, the dynamics of prices. “Overall, we believe that will still be a space for easing of monetary policy,” she added. According to Nabiullina, in favor of further rate cuts can play reinflation processes, as demand has not yet recovered.
“the demand and other beinglatino processes put pressure on pricing, thus constraining the growth acceleration of food inflation. If it goes on, this year, the Central Bank can lower the rate to 4%,” – says the economist BCS Premier Anton Pokatovich.
the reduction of the key rate is the main disadvantage for the population: lower Deposit rates and storage deposits becomes unprofitable. Now deposits will become less profitable. “Deposit rates will continue to decline. In the future two months, they can descend to the level of 4.2-4.5% and further to 4%,” says Pokatovich. Therefore, the yield of deposits will equal the level of the inflation target. In fact, inflation will “eat” all profit. The economist believes that interest rates also lowered his forecast in the second half of 0,3-0,6% from the current values.
Less optimistic analyst of “Finam” Sergey Drozdov. “Lending rates will decline negligiblyon unlike Deposit. Because of this, the Russians will lose money,” he said.
By the way, the expectations are that the Russians will no longer be credited after the quarantine of calm. The regulator forecast a loan growth of 4-5% until the end of the year.
in Addition to changes in the key rate at the last meeting, the Central Bank took an important decision on the mortgage. The regulator will allow banks to use lower risk weights on mortgages. This will free up about 300 billion roubles in the capital of banks and lead to lower mortgage rates.
“mortgage Rates both due to the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and by providing mortgages at concessional rates could finish the year in the range of 6.2-7%”, – predicts Anton Pokatovich.
