Japan by 2030, intends to close 110 of its 140 coal-fired power plants that will hit the traditional suppliers of energy coal in the country — Australia, Indonesia and Russia. Although this news is not a surprise — earlier, Japan adopted the strategic plan on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, the Russian government believed Japan promising from the point of view of increasing supply. Russian suppliers expect consumption will increase the other countries in the region.Russia in the next ten years will lose one of the Asian coal markets. By 2030, the Agency Kyodo, Japan intends to close 100 of the least efficient coal-fired power plants. The country of 140 coal plants, of which 114 related to relatively inefficient. As stated on Friday, the Minister of Japan Hiroshi Kajiyama, in July, the government will begin work on the elaboration of specific measures that will move away from coal generation programme to reduce carbon emissions and transition to renewable energy sources (RES). According to Mr. Kazemi, among the measures to enhance the role of renewable energy — changes in legislation regulating access to the grid.Coal accounts for 32% of energy consumption, Japan, renewable energy is only 17%. The share of coal in 2030 it is planned to reduce to 26%. 99% of their coal needs in Japan provides for imports. It is the world’s largest buyer of coal, it in 2019 accounted for 17,6% of the total imported coal in terms of value ($23.3 billion), total the country imported 125 million tons of coal. The main suppliers are Australia (61%), Indonesia (15%) and Russia (11%). In 2019, Russia exported to Japan to 20 million tons of coal at $1.9 billion Asian market is a key one for Russian thermal coal, demand for which on the background of the pandemic and stiff competition from gas has fallen sharply. The strategy of coal industry development does not involve any reduction of production or supply to Eastern markets. On a conservative scenario exports to Asia is expected at 190 million tonnes, while optimistic — 261 million tons. Energy as the developer of the program believes that Asia, unlike Europe, has the potential of increasing the import of Russian coal. The greatest gains can be achieved through China, India, Korea, Vietnam and Japan (the strategy was approved by decision of the Japanese government).The closure of the Japanese market will affect the largest coal producer in Russia SUEK Andrey Melnichenko. In the annual report SUEK said that Japan, which is one of the major markets, 2018 approved fifth strategic energy plan, according to which by 2030, will cut carbon dioxide emissions by 26% compared to 2013. Thus, coal consumption YAP��nia will decline by 11 million tonnes to 114 million tonnes. Also reduced the demand for imported coal from China by 76 million tons to 144 million tons. However, SUEK expects growth in imports from Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines — 90 million tonnes to 220 million tonnes and India by 26 million tonnes to 205 million tonnes. In SUEK promptly responded to the request to “Kommersant”.Head of practice on work with the enterprises of metallurgical and mining industry, KPMG in Russia and the CIS Olga Plevako believes that coal mining recent years is under pressure on the background of closing coal-fired power plants in Europe and reducing consumption in this area. In her opinion, the reports of plans to reduce coal generation in Japan, are generally not the most positive news, but the situation should not be dramatized, because the reorientation of the energy sector to renewables will require substantial investment that can be restricted under the current economic crisis and its consequences. Coal will remain relatively cheap, although “dirty” energy source and will be in demand in the emerging economies and in the economic downturn, the expert believes.Eugene Zainullin
