World oil production is ready to significantly grow. The main producers of “black gold” among OPEC+ intend to increase production of “black gold”, in which he indulged for several months. However, to return to pre-crisis production rates from Alliance members, including Russia, will not be soon. According to the forecasts of the Alliance, complete the demand for oil will recover in the world not previously IV quarter of 2021. The result is our country will have to pause about every tenth extraction wells and reduce their export capacity by almost a quarter.
OPEC Agreement+ about reduction of oil production to 9.7 million barrels per day beginning in may of this year. Initially, traders were going to limit production to only two months, but in June this condition was extended for the whole month of July. Moreover, concerns about the exacerbation of the pandemic and its impact on demand, does not exclude the scenario of extending the oil diet to the end of the summer. But in the run-up to the monitoring of the summit of OPEC+, held on 15 July, the participants inclined to the original plan. Production limits were gradually reduced: the fall and before the end of the year to 7.7 million barrels per day, and then in the period until may 2022 to 5.8 million “barrels” a day.
According to energy Minister Alexander Novak plans to reduce production obligations OPEC+ fully correspond to the situation on the market, and the energy Minister of Saudi Arabia Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said his country in August, will keep oil exports at the July level.
Recall that due to the artificial limitation of production of raw materials the world’s largest mining States are expected to stabilise the quotations of “black gold”, which is due to the larger fall in demand in the Wake of the pandemic had declined this year by almost three times. The first time the maneuver has yielded positive results: the cost of oil, which at the end of April fell below $20, then, after signing a new deal OPEC+, has more than doubled since the beginning of summer and has stabilized at a level of $41-43.
However, a further rise in oil prices is not expected. During the year the export of oil by OPEC countries fell by 7.5%, while the income of the members of the Alliance has fallen by almost 20%. Positive dynamics of the recovery of demand for hydrocarbons is practically not observed. Moreover, if according to the International energy Agency in the second quarter of the consumption of raw materials was approximately 16.5 million barrels per day below last year’s values, so in III quarter of the daily demand risks fall another 6.5 million
However, the very form of the deal on limiting oil production will undergo some changes. In particular, “losers”, i.e. countries that have not fulfilled the pre��idushie conditions on production cuts will have a bit of narrowing down. Such parties, as, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Angola and Gabon, which are in may and June deviated from their obligations, have to compensate for the overspending, limiting the production of more than 840 thousand barrels per day.
the Game with a decrease and an increase of production level, as suggested by a leading analyst of the national energy security Fund Igor Yushkov, gradually losing its influence on the world market of “black gold”. However, while manipulation of production remains almost the only means of coordinating and achieving a price balance in the world market. “The traditional suppliers of raw materials, mainly from mining Alliance will be beneficial to cover the growing demand for its own volumes of hydrocarbons without providing this possibility of us shale projects”, — the expert believes.
however, we cannot exclude that to the middle of autumn, when demand for energy on the world market will increase, OPEC members+ will again have to convene the summit, the agenda of which will be the question about the limitation of production. Russia in this situation to cut will be nothing: may 1, our country has limited oil production by 2.8 million barrels per day. Such a quota was the highest among all partners in the transaction. Despite the fact that Russian oil almost perfectly complied with the agreement, in August, according to OPEC, Russia, will be able to add to its prey only 500 thousand barrels.
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