Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”, said that the ruble is waiting for next week and gave a disappointing forecast for the coming quarter:
– the Result of the past trading week creates the preconditions for the formation of a new wave of purchases of foreign currency, which can at least return the dollar to 70,55 rubles, experts predict, and the Euro 79,55 to ruble next week. And the beginning of this is supposed to be Monday, though the day and replete with significant events.
Statistics on sales in the secondary housing market in USA will be of a secondary nature, and the meeting of the people’s Bank of China on the key rate hardly will change it. However, global investors may start revising their attitude to risk on the background of the successfully established for them the last two months.
the Consequence of this may be a correction in the oil market and pressure on the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies. Including on the ruble. After the decision of the Bank of Russia to lower its key interest rate it will have less immunity to deterioration in the financial markets.
Despite the disappointing trend of cases of the novel coronavirus in the world and local outbreaks in Beijing and in four States, the markets prefer not to notice. And focused on the promises of the White House to provide a plan for the expansion of the infrastructure costs in the amount of 1.5 trillion dollars, as well as new monetary stimulus of the Federal reserve.
However, it is worth considering that Friday was the expiration of the contracts on the US futures market, and within the next three months the market participants can start another game. Instead of the promise of a quick economic recovery in the news headlines will prevail a more restrained assessment, the weight of which can give disappointing results of the second quarter in the financial reports of corporations from mid-July.
Markets can start to play these events in advance, which makes a cautiously pessimistic to estimate prospects of the ruble as of the end of June and the remaining months of summer.
In the next quarters the rouble higher chance in the end to return to the lows of mid-March (82.8 ruble against the dollar and 89,50 of the ruble against the Euro). In any case, it now specifies the technical picture.