passenger traffic of the airlines of the Russian Federation in may fell by 91.3% (up to 949 thousand) compared to the same period last year. Carriers ‘ revenues because of the pandemic has fallen sharply, and the costs (leasing payments and credits, maintenance, wages) remained at the same level. According to experts, in the near future, airlines will try to shift the losses to travelers. So, the tickets price will rise soon.

In July and August, the Russian airlines will be able to almost completely restore the volume of traffic, says the Executive Director of the Agency “AviaPort” Oleg Panteleev. “In the summer we can recover at least 80% of air travel on the domestic lines. And it is likely that reconstruction will begin flights on international routes. At least, there is cautious on this issue in mid-July,” — said the expert.

meanwhile, in fact, the domestic transportation industry is in deep crisis. Carriers are starved of funds, and many of them are on the verge of bankruptcy. Recall that companies should return the clients funds for previously purchased tickets — the amount may exceed 60 billion rubles. According Panteleyev, this means that if all airlines have complied with their obligations, that suddenly turned out to be bankrupt. “Now there are still risks that somebody from carriers could not cope with the situation”, — he stressed.

It should be added an uncertain Outlook, open the message with foreign countries for all categories of travelers. As a result, previously allocated by the government to the carriers 23.4 billion rubles may not be enough to save the industry.

“the Pace of recovery in the air transportation sector will be closely linked to the epidemiological situation in the world and the willingness of both the Russian authorities and the authorities of the countries — the main destinations for Russian tourists to remove the restrictions”, — said the head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management” Michael Kogan. According to him, in the coming months, companies will continue to implement anti-crisis measures and to rely on state assistance, without which they are waiting for the inevitable bankruptcy.

Negative trends in the passenger market are observed not only in Russia. According to the International air transport Association (IATA), this year, airlines worldwide will record losses of $84.3 billion in the next financial result will again be negative: minus $15.8 billion According to top managers of airlines, full recovery of demand will need 2-3 years. According to a survey by IATA, many passengers not willing to fly up to the complete disappearance of the threat COVID-19. And the number of those now even increased in comparison with the peak of the pandemic: at the end of may — beginning of June the share of such brave travellers made up 45% vs. 60% in April.

the Aviation industry is included in the list of the most affected by the coronavirus, so the state will try to help the airlines get through a difficult period, the head of the analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. “You can’t abandon regular flights to distant regions, where the Russians can’t get any other way. This means companies will need to provide subsidies, but this does not mean that smaller players will remain on the market. First of all it concerns those who have managed to accumulate debt before a crisis or had a very negative financial performance over a number of years,” he said.

At the same time, IAC senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrova believes that the aviation industry will not die. “Anyway, flying is the most advanced version of long-distance movements. But the price tags on the carriage may change drastically. Just because a carrier is like any other retail business, wants some of its costs “split” with the consumer, that is, to shift on his shoulders your own expense”, — concluded the expert.