Why do we need forecasts to anticipate future risks or to approach the future, before preparing for his attack? If you give the answer to the question, the Ministry of Finance, neither for the one nor for the other. Everything is much more prosaic. The office of Anton siluanova future interests insofar as for him the main thing — compliance with future fiscal revenues those costs that are required by the Ministry of Finance. But, it seems, the future drawn by the economic development Ministry, the Finance Ministry is not satisfied with the income is not enough.
the Final figures for the Russian economy, which left forecasters of economic development, again, did not satisfy the Ministry of Finance. The problem is that after the inevitable compression of the budget in 2020, the Finance Ministry expects a significant growth of budget expenditures, which must conform to the growth of the economy. The essence of the position of the Ministry of Finance — in this: not so much the budget should correspond to the state of the economy, as, on the contrary, the economy should meet budget plans.
the Ministry, however, and so I tried as best I could. In the latest version of forecast GDP in 2020 will amount to 5% as in the previous embodiment, and 4.8%. The growth of the economy in 2021 is now estimated at 3.2%, not 2.8%, but with the role of “Golden fish”, is able, though not the first time to meet the mistress of nothing, subordinate Maxim Reshetnikov still failed.
In the movie “election Day 2” one of the characters justifies their participation in the election campaign that the money that you earn, it’s already spent. The Ministry of Finance is not far removed from this position. But if the forecast will fit the budget, and not Vice versa, we all, figuratively speaking, will live in a painted house budget. But the Treasury will be able to report that the budget will cope with the new commitments, which is not tired to add the President. The one who said, “to Govern — means to foresee”, knew little about hardware manners and customs.
Besides, there are also theatrical customs. There are even “theatre” days. About the backstage dispute with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of economic development became known last week. The second act of the same play soon began publishing about the performance of the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. In the ensuing dispute it in absentia made by the arbitrator, once again announcing the forecast of the Central Bank. On Neglinnaya in 2020 we expect the fall of the Russian economy by 4-6%, and in 2021 — growth of 2.8–4.8 percent. In fact, the plugs of the Central Bank look good in the hands of the Ministry of Finance. The Bank of Russia demonstrates more headroom optimistic than the economic development.
But what is a play without a third act! He took place. Without it, the picture of the future of the Russian economy with the consequences budget revenues and the corresponding expenses would be one-sided. The thread of the intrigue would be left slack — all competed with each other in the optimism that this would look strained��.
the Third act of heightened suspense to the limit, giving the opportunity to look at what is happening on stage from the other side. Bloomberg spoke about the possible approach of the second wave of the coronavirus. According to the world health organization, 21 June was a record by daily increase of cases COVID-19 in the world. The situation worsened in the United States, a high risk exists for Germany, Australia and other developed economies. In developing countries, such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, the pandemic continues to gain momentum. What this means for the economy, we already know.
But here’s a reminder: according to the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) in the event of another pandemic, the economy will be reduced in 2020 by 8-10%. Then all debate of the Ministry of Finance with the Ministry of economic development will be last year’s snow.
What’s the catch, the economy Ministry forecast a second wave of coronavirus bypassed. Forecast as the Finance Ministry, not about the risks the future.