Upper limit of budget expenditures, established by the Ministry of Finance, involves the almost complete inability to budget for the years 2021-2023 to increase the “standard” Federal budget expenditure in the draft budget calculations preliminary design costs even defense program proposes to reduce by 7-8% from the current plan. Space for budget cuts in 2021-2022 years especially closely, in varying degrees, protected articles are social and anti-crisis spending, drastically increased solutions spring 2020.As follows from messages of news agencies, the Ministry of Finance approved the document, which is the main active phase of drafting the Federal budget for the years 2021-2023,— “Methodology of calculation of the maximum baseline budget allocation”. The Prime Agency on Sunday quoted some figures from the document, concerning specific government programs (GP) — in particular, GP “defence Development”, “Ensuring the country’s defense”, “Economic development and innovative economy”, “industry Development”, “Development of foreign economic activity”. Complete information about budget parameters, these data can not give, however, the direction of changes in the budget for the years 2021-2023 are obvious — in 2021-2022 years will have a very significant reduction in “non-social” spending.The project “Methodology” was published by the Ministry of Finance on 8 June 2020. In fact, this document is a set of limits, the upper straps of the costs of a particular budget line. They are determined, on the one hand, already existing and accepted on the Federal budget commitments in the past years and months, which cannot be undone (defining the budget structure — this includes spending by social funds, and adopted expenditure measures emergency and implemented presidential orders and government decrees) on the other constraints of “fiscal rules”. “Methodology” sets, though detailed, but the overall framework — following the approval of these limits are offered, the main managers of budgetary funds (GRBS), which further consent or objection, the discussion of objections in detail and concrete solutions to the fall leads to the appearance of the draft budget in the government — he then discussed in the state Duma.In 2020 this technology typically does not cause excessive voltage GRBS passes the greatest test. On the one hand, draft of 8 June, and this is emphasized in the document of the Ministry of Finance, based on the current law on the budget (after the March amendments) and the macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of economy. “After the approval of the government of the Russian Federation of the forecast… the Ministry of Finance to independently carry out the allocation of appropriate indicators,” routine discussed in the commentary veauthority to the document of 8 June, although it was already clear that the forecast (approved in September) due to the economic turmoil of the spring of 2020 (coronavirus pandemic plus the decline in GDP in the second quarter and by the end of 2020 due to the collapse of export revenues) has little to do with reality. Thus in June, the limits had to make some pretty major changes (e.g., growth of expenses on requirements of the message of Vladimir Putin to demographic and medical projects with a total value of only part of the transfers to the social Fund to 940 bln. RUB.), GRBS put in a situation in which any increase of limits could not even be hoped for. In June the project called for, with few minor exceptions, zero growth or small reductions in most state programs. Meanwhile, in the summer of 2020, the government adopted a series of measures for post-crisis recovery, including a major nationwide social benefits to households (Bank of Russia last week was evaluated, however, in the consolidated budget system, 800 billion roubles) and the equally large support costs of companies — including “retiring” the credits to support employment.The first digit of the new limits in part already reflect the nature of these changes. So, limit the basic expenditure of the government program (GP) “Economic development and innovative economy” will increase from 162,2 billion rubles to 609,6 bn in 2021, obviously, it is because of this credit support. Further reducing limits for GP will be in 2022-2023 years, about 11% every year until 175,5 and 179,6 billion rubles. SE “industrial Development” will be reduced from the approved in the current budget plans by 18% in 2021, 17.3% in 2022 and by 16.1% in 2023 — saving is expected to 120-130 billion rubles per year. Extremely necessary to the government of the GP of the development of foreign trade is also reduced by 3-4% as the relatively small SE for developing the defence industry and ensure state security.Tighter limits will affect the “defense” of GP, usually irreducible. Here the extent of the cuts look like. On 2021 June limits on GP was 1.54 trillion (and then proposed to increase another 14 billion rubles). Now a new limit of 1.42 trillion rubles, the reduction of costs by 7.9%. By 2022 the old limit of 1.57 trillion, a new — to 1.46 trillion rubles, the reduction of 8.2%. The same figures for 2023 — 1.6 trillion rubles., of 1.51 trillion rubles, the limits are reduced by 4.5%. However, the last digit of the conditional features of the budget “three year olds” are usually heavily distort the calculations for the third year.”Defense” GP (it also pretty much social in nature costs) is one of the largest in the budget: the fact that at least in 2021-2022 years, it is necessary to reduce this scale, despite the fact that at least 2021, “fiscal rule” in part spending more will not take effect (a return to it is expected in 2022), shows how intense is the current budget bargaining. The budget 2021-2022 years will be forced “social” — prodemocratia irrevocable decisions were made before the crisis as irreversible. In the end, despite the demonstrated ability of the Ministry of Finance almost did not spend the national welfare Fund, covering the budget deficit large loans in the BFL, the space budget bargaining in 2020 is extremely decreased, and out of fiscal consolidation without real losses can not, apparently, none GRBS.Dmitry Butrin
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