Especially for “the Russian newspaper” the analyst “freedom Finance” Valery Emelyanov told, due to which developers are still trying to attract more buyers, and was named the best time to buy real estate:
– the real estate Market is preparing for a wave of hype after a full lifting of the quarantine. Developers are betting that buyers who are forced to move the purchase from spring to summer, in June, the rush to catch up. But developers do not dare much to raise prices.
on the Contrary, most of them now included anti-crisis sales mode, offering hidden discounts in the guise of promotions and bonuses. Key question – how they are beneficial.
APR was not as disastrous for the market of new buildings, as was to be expected. Despite the quarantine, the sale of apartments has not stopped completely, and halved. However, some developers have even managed to increase the volume compared to last year. There is every reason to believe that may will be at least no worse: consumers are comfortable with online sales, and those who want to personally see the item before you buy, have a call and book them for the summer.
In the first approximation, the situation on the real estate market looks like discounts are not supposed to be at all. First, it raised the cost of materials. Following the increase in rates (15% YTD) rose imported equipment and finishes: from elevators to paints and Wallpapers.
secondly, the price of stronger pushes up the transition to project financing. The cheapest construction projects with equity participation – in early stage – just left. And the finished apartments, developers are usually not traded.
And thirdly, and most importantly, it’s a new mortgage at 6.5%. Reduced rate now gives everyone, regardless of region of residence, presence of children in the family and other conditions that were previously required.
the Government subsidizes the difference between market rate and lowered, thereby provides customers with indirect discount for apartments. And this, in principle, deprives the developers the motivation to further reduce prices.
If the updated rate translate into a price difference, we can say that the current price already incorporated a discount of 14%. Exactly as reduced standard payment of ipotechnikam who takes a new loan at 6.5% instead of the normal of 8.6%.
However the developers decided not to tempt fate just in case, and began to enter the stock, that customers do not postpone the purchase.
additionally, Many developers subsidize a reduction in mortgage rates, at their own expense. In the regions it is now possible to find a mortgage at 2-4% (for example, in Tatarstan and Udmurtia). But if the residential complex falls under the criteria of the countryside (for example, on the outskirts of cities), it is a subsidy to 3% from the Statesand. Then, the developer in conjunction with the Bank-partner of another throw off from itself by offering apartment loans under 1%.
Moscow’s largest developers brought the rate to 0.5% and even to 0%. However, not for the whole period, but only up to a year. However, in rubles savings for a client is comparable to an additional discount on the flat at 4%.
in Addition to lowering rates is now gaining momentum offers and promotions. Developers are willing to include in the basic price of the apartment Parking space, balcony or storage room, give lots of trim without raising prices, introducing interest-free installments. Savings for the client in some cases can reach 10-15%. But this should not mislead.
Developers are not in a position to dump for real. The vast majority of discounts calculated on non-liquid objects on which the sellers could not get to epidemic. The most popular flats are in the price. This is indicated, for example, that the average price tag for April increased by 1.3%, despite the freezing of construction projects for a whole month.
the Average cost per square meter in the capital projects now is 205 thousand rubles. This is not only cheaper than it was in March, but 10% higher than a year ago.
in Other words, the developers have fixed prices on the highs, which managed to bring them before the epidemic, and now hold, hoping to catch up on volumes due to government subsidies and banks.
Banks have invested their money in new buildings, now are interested in discounts and spur sales even more than the developers themselves. After all, under the new arrangement, the house will be built anyway. But if the apartments will be sold poorly, the quality of loans for the construction, will fall.
So if the crisis in the industry came to stay, the price decline will not happen for a month, and will take years to 2.5 years. And the fall will not be on individual objects and on everything, including the best quality, and it will be up to 20%. That’s exactly what happened in the previous two crises after the events of 2008 and 2014.
If we assume that this time the market will quickly rebound, the rush the more nowhere. Demand slowdown began even before the epidemic, so the government introduced enhanced matkapital, rural and far Eastern mortgage. Relatively speaking, the whole Arsenal of market support already used, and prices have nowhere to grow.
the Quarantine will take place, but low rates are not going anywhere. A year ago 6% mortgage was only given to beneficiaries, and today banks are ready to own the buildings to lend almost for free. Given that the Central Bank is firmly on course for the reduction of the key rate, the average mortgage will continue to become cheaper.
