Paul Christensen is one of the most renowned Russia experts in the USA. In an interview with FOCUS Online, the university professor for Russian studies gives his assessment of the war and looks at Germany’s role. He attests some politicians in this country an “ideological hangover”.
“Putin’s regime has absolutely nothing to do with socialist values - it stands for capitalism, nationalism and imperialism. I understand it all the less when so-called intellectual leftists in Germany want to appease the Kremlin boss,” says Paul Christensen in an interview with FOCUS Online. Christensen is one of the most renowned Russia experts in the USA.
The behavior of some politicians in Germany is difficult for him to understand: “I myself have represented a social-liberal world view all my life and used to live in Russia for many years. The few true socialists that still exist there today loathe Putin. You despise him.”
The Boston College professor goes on to say: “This glorification of the Soviet era by some left-wing Germans is incomprehensible in view of today’s reality. Don’t they really see that Putin has established an elite regime with himself at the top? With the most expensive Western designer suits, luxury watches and elite schools in the USA, Switzerland or London for the children of the elite – but without any freedom of expression in your own country? Somehow it has to be a decades-old ideological hangover.”
For him, American expectations of the German government are obvious: “It is right that the Germans are finally increasing their military spending. Of course, Berlin has to meet its NATO obligations. It’s about time. And yes – Germany should also support Ukraine with heavy arms shipments.”
In addition, the author of numerous specialist publications on Russian society after the fall of the Soviet Union finds: “In energy policy, Germany has a leading European position. The Germans must ensure that Europe becomes completely independent of Russian natural gas and oil imports.”
Whether the Kremlin boss can still win the Ukraine war is also a question of perspective: “That depends on the definition of victory. Because in many ways Putin has already lost. After all, he assumed this war would be over within a few weeks.”
Although Christensen concedes: “Of course Putin can succeed in taking areas in the south and east – he has already gained control in over 80 percent of the Donbass region.” can never feel safe. Because the Ukrainians will never give up their resistance.” According to the expert, this was a crucial misjudgment by the Kremlin boss.
The Russia expert believes three scenarios are conceivable for the further course of the war. “One possibility would be that the Ukrainians succeed in pushing back the Russians. In a second scenario, Russia could take the areas in the east and be satisfied with that.” Under certain circumstances, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj would then have to decide whether to agree to a corresponding agreement, according to Christensen. “Or else – and I think this is the most likely idea from today’s perspective: the war will continue for a long time – maybe even more than a decade.”
A further, fourth scenario seems rather improbable to Christensen: “Of course there is always the theoretical chance that Putin will launch nuclear attacks or use other weapons of mass destruction. But it’s hard for me to imagine that his military elite would take part – and he would need them for that.”
The Russia expert has few expectations that the Russian people could increase their pressure on the Kremlin boss. “Because of government media censorship and social media controls, there is little evidence of growing opposition or domestic pressure. In my opinion, most Russians really don’t know what’s going on.” This is true even in Russian academic circles. Many of Christensen’s acquaintances in Moscow would continue to believe Putin’s propaganda.
There are isolated indications that some parts of the population have started to ask more questions. “Some of my colleagues think this is very promising – but I don’t. This also applies to Putin’s May 9 speech. Admittedly, it was surprisingly quiet and far more toned down than expected, but I wouldn’t give too much importance to that either.”
When saying goodbye, Christensen would like to ask one more question at the end of the interview: “Will the German Social Democrats ever expel Gerhard Schröder from their party? That would really interest me. And many other Americans too.”
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