the Exchange rate of the ruble is already a familiar drama: on Monday the dollar rose to 72 kopecks, Euro — by 97. And then came suddenly the alarm review CB: blame the foreigners! For statistical confirmation of the fact did not. In March non-residents and foreign banks bought foreign currency in the Russian market on 389,4 billion rubles This is a record figure for the last few years. The conclusion is obvious: the selling of the ruble, arranged by-residents, it collapses. Found guilty?
Remember the classic Reprise Arkady Raikin about a suit and a button? There the buttons have no complaints, but the costume is sewn and sits ugly. The Central Bank is accountable for his “button”, told about how to behave non-residents and foreign banks on the Russian currency market and making the Central Bank itself. The picture is in its own way exciting. For example, from March 10 to April 8-residents and foreign banks bought currency to 354 billion rubles, and the Bank sold at 245 billion. “Sales by the Bank of Russia of foreign currency allowed to smooth the negative impact of sharp fall in oil prices on the inflow of foreign currency under current account of the balance of payments,” reads the report. And in General March 19 on “the currency front” came the decisive turning point: the Central Bank started to sell foreign currency from the Fund for the ruble to Finance the purchase of the government all at the same Central Bank controlling stake in Sberbank.
Assume that the Central Bank is doing what it can. But do non-residents — the main culprits of the failure of the ruble? Unless their behavior is completely spontaneous? “The observed behavior of non-residents due to the increased volatility of the ruble, and the General trend of the weakening of the currencies of the countries (emerging markets) against the background of slowing global growth and oversupply in the oil market,” explains Dr. Bank. All right. Here only in relation to the ruble developments on the oil market is unlikely to put other factors into last place.
it is obvious that it is oil, or rather, the fall in its price — the thread that stitched the suit of the ruble exchange rate. “Buttons” is secondary. Non-residents sold off not from the sudden sharp hostility to them. They adequately react primarily on the March events in the oil market. And then proceeds rubles were exchanged for currency.
Do the main culprits in the collapse of the ruble of non-residents and foreign banks is to put the entire blame for the collapse in oil prices on Saudi Arabia. Yes, the trigger of starting gun, signaling the beginning of the race of oil production when prices fall after the collapse of the first version of the agreement OPEC+, pressed in Riyadh. But before that, Russia represented by energy Minister Alexander Novak, left the conference in Vienna, without waiting for its completion. In something��Yes — March 5-6, was a stumbling block between Moscow and Riyadh is known. Saudi Arabia has offered to reduce the overall level of production, Russia insisted on maintaining the previous constraints. Not agreed. Subsequent events and the renewal of the agreement OPEC+ with a record reduction in oil only has convincingly shown, whose position was more productive.
CB’s the whole picture does not give him “foreign” is not necessary, he is responsible for his “buttons”. And the ruble continues to wait for signals from oil. The reduction in production will support prices only when the growth of demand for oil that will only occur when the General economic recovery.