the shock of the First devastating blows to the Russian economy from the coronavirus and the fall in oil prices takes place. Not that, alas, is the sense that the economy is already reviving. Went numb, there are the first attempts to realize where the economy is now and that it will happen in the near future.
now that the Russian economy, obezdwijivanie quarantine and devoid of half of its oil revenues, lies, all agree. Statistics of the second quarter is definitely not for the faint of heart. The OECD believes that the first blow to the Russian economy will be at the level of minus 22-23 percent in the first full month of quarantine. Close is chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova: in April, the collapse of Russia’s GDP in relation to April 2019 will be 20% by the end of the second quarter the economy will fall by 6%.
Recall that the head of the accounts chamber Aleksei Kudrin on 1 April talked about the decline of the Russian economy in 2020 3-5%, and on April 13 stayed at 5%. But these estimates Kudrin belong to the optimistic scenario, it has pessimistic: a repeat of 2009, when GDP decline was 7.9%. It is important after Kudrin to repeat: in 2009, the crisis year, the average price of a barrel of oil was $61. While this is a pipe dream, and therefore reserves to support the economy now is limited. Plug Kudrin: minus 5-8% of GDP in 2020.
the fork Is much wider, almost to the forks. The Russian economy will shrink by 3.8% in 2020 in the best case, worst — 10, 2%, follows from the review of McKinsey&Company “the Influence COVID-19 on the Russian economy”. The worst scenario is realized, if the coronavirus to contain not be (not in Russia and in the world) and the fall of the world economy in 2020 will be 5%. You should pay attention: the worst option is the global economy 5% of GDP, and Russian — more than 10%. This negative drop in oil prices. The conditions for the implementation of the best scenario: Russia will stop the pandemic before the end of the second quarter, recovery will begin in July.
There is a similar forecast of the Russian German rating Agency Scope Ratings. However, with three scenarios — base, stress and worst. In all, Russia’s GDP is falling at 3.3, 8.8 and 11.3 percent.
the Baseline scenario assumes average annual prices of Brent oil $35 per barrel in 2020 and gradual removal of quarantine restrictions for the second half of the year. The worst case scenario comes from the fact that quarantine restrictions will last until the end of 2020, and oil prices will remain at $20.
At an average (stress) scenarios Scope comes from the fact that the average capacity utilization in the economy is just over 75% in the second and third quarters of the year 2020.
There are predictions according to which the Russian economy is drawn into a two-year economic crisis. The Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting experts to��whose work for the government, I believe that in the optimistic scenario, with the support of the economy of the state of Russia’s GDP in 2020 will fall by 2.3–2.5 percent, and in 2021 — an additional 0.5–0.8 percent. If the authorities choose instead support only “policy stabilization” drop in 2020 will be about 2-3,3% and 0.8–1% in 2021.
according To the forecast of McKinsey in the baseline scenario, designated as “containment” Russia’s economy after the failure of the 2020 return to pre-crisis level (end of 2019) in mid-2021. In a negative scenario (“postponed restoration”), the return to pre-crisis levels will be delayed until mid-2023. There are not so gloomy predictions. Alfa-Bank and the world Bank predicts falling of economy of the Russian Federation in 2020 only 1% of GDP.
a lot of Numbers, but one thing is clear: Russia’s economy is declining. It already has in conditions related quarantine reductions in employment and wages remaining in the state of negative social consequences, but they quarantine will not be limited. Here, according to the forecasts, certainly is not a fork, and forks. Here is the forecast VEB: real disposable income of Russians may be reduced by the end of 2020 6.5%, and the unemployment rate in 2020 risks to jump to 7% after 4.7% in 2019. The peak unemployment rate is projected for the second quarter of 2020, when the expected increase in the number of unemployed Russians to 10% of the economically active population.
But the forecast McKinsey: the closure of the industries, retail businesses and services will lead to higher unemployment, which will be of short duration under the control of the spread of the virus. And most importantly: Russian unemployment rate may remain above 8% in the medium term, with repeated outbreaks of epidemic and prolonged quarantine measures.
“8% in the medium term”, that is, the unemployment rate, 1.7 times the level in 2019, remaining three to five years, is already very serious. The government must do everything to prevent such a development. But in any case the main conclusion is that the coronavirus together with the economic crisis definitely changed the social portrait of Russian society. The situation is dangerously warming up: the aggravation of social conflicts is imposed on the already grotesque social polarization. This means that the Russian political system as a whole will be seriously tested.
