The Americans and NATO have already distanced themselves from the German chancellor. Now, for the first time, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has done the same. Will Olaf Scholz decide tomorrow to deliver German battle tanks to Ukraine?

Over and over: the argument of the self-proclaimed friends of peace and open letter writers that arms shipments prolonged the war and increased the number of casualties has been dealt with by Ukraine’s offensive.

Against Richard David Precht, the Left Party, the AfD and parts of the SPD, there is now a word from the Federal Foreign Minister, the top Green politician Annalena Baerbock: “Our weapons help to save human lives.”

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What is interesting about this statement by the Foreign Minister is the obvious conclusion with which the Greens adopt the reading of their Ukrainian colleague Dmytro Kuleba, whom they have just met again: every minute that Germany does not deliver battle tanks to war victims, a Ukrainian soldier dies .

It is a dilemma from which there is no escape, even for members of the government.

Although Germany is not a “party to the war” in the sense of international law, this does not mean that Germany is not significantly involved in the Ukraine war – namely through its arms deliveries. And even if the Americans deliver the lion’s share to Ukraine, more than all Europeans combined.

“Our weapons” are in particular the Panzerhaubitze 2000, the name of which sounds a little like Captain von Köpenick. But there is nothing cute about it: this tank with its 155mm ammunition is a first choice precision war machine. One of the deadliest weapons in the world.

This applies to a limited extent to the German Gepard anti-aircraft tank, which Ukrainian soldiers are now using to fire on Russian soldiers. And it also applies to the medium artillery rocket system, in short: Mars. A so-called rocket launcher, fast on the terrain, with high firepower.

In short: with the approval of Olaf Scholz, Germany has long been supplying far more than helmets and winter socks.

One reason why Olaf Scholz, with his refusal to deliver Marder and Leo-2 tanks to Ukraine, is the arbitrariness of this refusal – what political difference it should make to Ukraine the next 1-A war weapon Made in Germany Olaf Scholz has not yet declared that he will be available.

It also cannot be explained: Marder and Leo make a quantitative but no qualitative difference. This is also the case with the so-called ring exchanges. Officially, the Poles, for example, supplied Soviet-made T-70 tanks. The government often adds: old tanks.

However, Poland has long since modernized some of these T-70s – according to NATO standards. And it can be assumed that these modernized T-70s are superior to the Russian T-90s, which are also just “tuned” T-70s. Want to say: There is also very effective western technology in eastern ring exchange tanks.

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Making the difference on the battlefield. The Ukrainians are successful for at least four reasons. First, because they have a moral mission while the Russians have an amoral mission.

Ukrainians want to liberate their country, Russians want to conquer their country. The Ukrainian army is a liberation army, the Russian army is a war criminals army. The border to genocide is now blurred. The latest Russian attack was aimed at a Ukrainian hydroelectric dam.

If the first reason for the Ukrainian success is the morale of the troops, the second is a Western import: the war tactics that the Ukrainians learned in the West. Acting flexibly and quickly according to mission tactics is more successful than acting blindly to orders and obedience like the Russians.

The third reason is the western tanks, the fourth: the weapons captured from the panicking fleeing Russians – including lots of armored vehicles. Which begs the question: Given its successes, does Ukraine even need German main battle tanks?

The answer is simple: an attacker needs a triple superiority, and the Ukrainians don’t have that. When Ukrainians attack Russians to rid their country of them, they run into their fire. Main battle tanks are the weapon of choice to keep the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers as low as possible.

Weapons, including German weapons, do not prolong the war and increase the number of victims. The opposite is true: they shorten the war and reduce the number of casualties.

And without German battle tanks, logically: without Western battle tanks, it will take longer for Ukraine to regain sovereignty. If it succeeds. And it costs more lives. So to the German Chancellor.

We remember: “Russia must not win the war, Ukraine must not lose the war.” Olaf Scholz answered the mantra-like answer to the question of what the German goal in this war was.

In any case, Scholz carefully avoided the sentence that the Greens, Liberals and Unionists have been saying for a long time: “Ukraine must win the war, Russia must lose it.” Until now.

Because now it’s different. After his recent phone call with Vladimir Putin, Scholz tweeted this sentence on his official Chancellor account: “Russia must withdraw its troops from Ukraine and recognize sovereignty and territorial integrity. Otherwise, a diplomatic solution is inconceivable.”

Which also only means this: For Scholz, a prerequisite for peace negotiations is that Ukraine wins the war and Russia loses it. Which shows once again: Scholz moves in the end, the man just needs his time. This could also happen when deciding on battle tanks.

In the end, three factors should be the decisive factor in Scholz giving in:

1. Baerbock has made a decision, against her colleague from the defense department: “In the crucial phase that Ukraine is currently in, I don’t think that’s a decision that should be delayed for long.”

She told the “FAZ” – and meant the tanks. It is important for the SPD that the President of the Bundestag, Bärbel Bas, formally number two in the state, is the first prominent social democrat to position herself in this way.

2. The NATO Secretary General personally rejected Christina Lambrecht’s position that the defense of the alliance must now take priority over further aid to Ukraine, according to the motto: The freedom of the West will be decided on the battlefield in Ukraine and not on any German military training areas .

3. Americans take Germany’s claim to be a leading power for what it is: hollow. The US embassy in Berlin only needed one sentence to clear up Scholz’s argument: “Don’t go it alone”: In the end, each country decides independently about its help.

Tomorrow Olaf Scholz will speak at the traditional Bundeswehr conference. It should be one of the last opportunities for him to get away without further loss of face.