the United States decided to withdraw from the Treaty on open skies. What was needed for such a drastic step and would not trump a decision to a new round of tensions between Russia and the United States, What the objectives sought in the President trump, which actually means the withdrawal of the United States from the Treaty on open skies, said the us expert.

“the Situation is very simple, – commented chief researcher of the Institute of USA and Canada studies, Vladimir Vassilyev. – United States of America has long stood in the way of the whole system of treaties that determined the configuration of political stability for the past 50 years.

Why now the open skies Treaty important? In the first place because he batch, and he’s very tightly associated with the start-3. Even more – we can say that he’s part of this agreement.

So this is just the next step in the same direction. The second of August last year, trump declared invalid the agreement on the elimination of intermediate and short range, now the United States took another interim step, and in the autumn the United States can withdraw from the contract about SNV-3.

it is significant that in explaining the state Department mentioned only two violations of this agreement, and both from the Russian side. A ban on flights over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and restricting flights over the Kaliningrad.

But Russian counter-claims even has not been mentioned. This once again emphasizes that in this case the United States of America have formed an opinion and will stick with it until the end. But it is definitely just an excuse, not a cause.

If to look for the cause, it is necessary to recall the history of that Treaty. For the first time an agreement on open skies in 1956 suggested that the Republican Eisenhower. It was the obsession of the Republican administration. Then the Americans trying to achieve the conclusion of the Treaty, but Khrushchev refused, arguing that it can be used for spying. Then the planes came, the satellites, and the urgent need for this Treaty disappeared.

the idea to conclude an agreement on open skies returned another Republican, George H. W. Bush in 1989. And as a result the contract was concluded in 1992, when it disappeared Soviet Union. Then it disappeared real need for such a Treaty in terms of intelligence, but remained a danger because of accidental triggers.

George Bush Sr. feared not only a system of random launches, and the spread of nuclear weapons in the former Soviet republics. It is significant that this contract included all of the former Soviet Republic. It shows the fears of Americans that control over the use of missile-poisonarnoga weapons in the disintegration of the Soviet Union can be weakened.

in addition, this contract is a sign of trust. This is a continuation of the concept of Reagan’s “trust but verify”. Here, the Americans believed that the open skies Treaty – a demonstration of trust between the guidelines of different countries.

Given such a history, actions trump has a domestic political context. The Treaty on open skies the promotion of Republicans. Today the Republican administration trump trumps those. It may be associated with the aspirations of the incumbent President to impose new rules. The head of the United States would like to announce: the open skies Treaty is a relic of the past, when the USSR and the USA existed. Americans believe that more than that no parity.

They think this way: “All that is necessary, we about you already know. We have satellites, agents, and other tools. But in our economy you nose, otherwise we’ll be here pinch”. They believe that they have this contract that is now absolutely not necessary, but it is beneficial only to Russia.

Another point which could be associated with the US decision to withdraw from this agreement – coronavirus, and the subsequent economic crisis. This crisis, in opinion of Americans, dramatically changed the prospects of a possible arms race. From the point of view of America, in this economy, Russia is unlikely to survive the arms race. Therefore, they believe that in case of “exhausting” the arms race the United States will come out of it a winner. Although everyone knows that America also has serious problems because of the coronavirus, but they believe that created the reserve in case of need they will be able to hold the required time.

Theoretically, the output from such agreements may lead to the situation 70 years and an uncontrollable arms race. Some experts believe that it is possible to fear the emergence of a new Cuban crisis, but in reality things are not so simple.

we Must remember that now there is another center of power is China. And American-Russian rivalry may fade into the background on the background of confrontation between America and China. This further confuses the situation. In such a situation, traditionally, the idea of the struggle between the two poles is no longer relevant. In this regard, the price of these contracts (and their breakup) are seriously diminished. Now it primarily emphasizes precisely the lack of trust between Russia and the United States.”

see also: Expert on the U.S. withdrawal from open skies: a bet on European partners