In a new Video on your Youtube-science channel “maiLab” explains Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim, the relevant scientific facts, analyses, modelling and in particular the question: when is over this pandemic finally? So much to the point: is It going to take.
Theoretically, the pandemic is over, when the so-called herd immunity is reached, i.e. 60 to 70 percent of the people infected and then recover. The scientist calculates With 76.000 confirmed cases in Germany (as of 1. April), and a dark figure of about a factor of 10, we have reached more than 760,000 cases only a herd immunity of a little more than one percent.
“The Corona-crisis-go so only just,” concludes the scientist.
it is Sufficient, the curve is flat to keep?
There are two phases of the epidemic of poverty, the explained may: Containment and Mitigation. Under the Containment epidemiologists understand containment, the disease should be promptly nipped in the Bud. The measures include many Tests to isolate the Infected and contact persons; authorities to retain an Overview of all the cases and further spread prevented.
Currently, Germany is in the second Phase: With Mitigation damage limitation is meant. If cases and contact chains of clear and targeted insulation are no longer possible to area-wide measures can be implemented. Currently, the are applicable in Germany-Contact orders, output restrictions, but also to Work in a home office or distance.
In the second Phase, the attempt of containment was abandoned first. The new goal is to slow the spread of the keyword “Flatten the curve” (in English: the curve is flat to hold). May explains: “The slower the epidemic passes, the less people are infected and the less people need at the same time a medical treatment.” This is important not to overload our health care system. The Corona-cases beyond the health care system, would have dire consequences, Doctors would have to decide about life and death. dpa/Henning Kaiser image Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim (M) accepts the award of the Grimme Online Awards a prize.
- Corona-the crisis in the News Ticker of FOCUS Online
“Flatten the Curve up to the herd immunity is not confirmed and preserved”
may: In the case of many of the impression that with the Lockdown, the curve was flat enough that everything would be somewhat weathered lightly settled. “This notion is unfortunately far removed from reality to imagination.” You, on the basis of some concrete Numbers.
especially Important is the reproduction number is. This States how many people are infects a of Infected, on average. For Coronavirus, Sars-Cov-2 the are currently two to three people, experts estimate. Without measures, the Corona is Patient, so two to three people.
contact prohibition and output limitations of the current measures is to reduce the reproduction number. But how high must it be that our health system has sufficient capacity? May shows the basis of modelling of the German society for epidemiology, various conceivable scenarios for Germany. German society for epidemiology
your conclusion: The reproduction number to a value between 1.1 and 1.25 should be reduced. What is, therefore, only with extreme contact restrictions possible.
And even then, would be over the epidemic in a year. May is even assumed, that you have to receive the strict measures one to two years, to avoid the collapse of our health care system.
“And that doesn’t work!”, the scientist explains. Would follow immense damage to the economy, will be threatened, in turn, livelihoods and human life, as well as further consequences for the Psyche and society.
The scientist emphasized: “If the order is not completely wrong, then Flatten the Curve up to the herd immunity is not sustainable.”
to take as quickly as Possible to return to Phase 1
The Flattening of the curve would be so long. “We need to stop the curve and the reproductive number below 1,” said may. The number of Corona cases must be so small that the health authorities are in the position to monitor all cases and track them. Then targeted measures may apply only to the Infected and potential contact persons.
For the Rest, could stop a far-reaching normality. Germany would be back in Phase 1. But how would that be possible?
“The way back to Phase 1, only with strict measures for all of the feasible”, says the scientist. Because in order for the invoice to go to, could infect an Infected person less than a Person (the reproduction number less than 1).
“the fact That this Lockdown was decided, is appropriate and correct,” underlines the scientist. Still, we are far from a case number that is low enough to come back to Phase 1. < / h3> Reported corona virus cases in Germany (click on your state)
when returning to Phase 1 would be possible?
But when would be a return to Phase 1? Because until then all would have to follow the strict measures. May have to make an assumption, starting from which case number it is for the authorities, it would be possible to survey all cases.
The scientist chooses 1000 as the number of cases – also in terms of the time that the Minister of health Spahn recommended that events with more than 1000 people to cancel. “By then, there was obviously a Problem with the tracking of the cases,” said may. The actual number depends from different factors such as Test facilities, resources, personnel, infrastructure, etc., she says.
If there is at the present time, would be able to reduce the reproduction number to 0.5, it would take 56 days to the case limit of 1000 cases would be reached, calculates may. So almost two months. But a Reproduction ratio of 0.5 is extremely low, that would be “Wuhan-Style-Lockdown”, stresses the scientist.
And the epidemic is not over still, so may more. “We come only in a state in which the health system and economy can work.”
” This epidemic is with a vaccine,”
“In practice, we can forget about a natural herd immunity, quasi,” said may. There is no scenario in which a herd immunity of 60 to 70 percent can be achieved could be created without causing unimaginable damage. “Either we have the capacity of our health care system would blow up, in the process frightening many people would die or we would keep track of the herd immunity is below the capacity of our health care system, but that would take so long that it would be economically and socially bearable.”
The scientist concludes: This epidemic is with a vaccine, which is expected at the earliest in the spring of 2021 ready. “So we can keep this for as long as possible without damage, now we need hard measures as quickly as possible back to the Containment mode, we can then persevere in to relative normalcy,” said may.
Here you can see the complete Video.
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