a Significant factor playing against the Russian currency will be seasonal decline of currency inflows on the current account, which, though is less pronounced due to weak consumer demand and closed for tourist trips to the borders, but still have a significant negative impact, said the head of analytical management of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin.
On the horizon Aug the pressure on the ruble may rise, agrees the analyst of “Nordea-Bank” Grigory Zhirnov. In addition to the probable weakening appetite for risky assets negative local factors can be converted back to the currency paid before the end of July dividends “Gazprom” and “LUKOIL”, as well as the anti-Russian sanctions rhetoric, the expert believes.
the Demand for Russian assets, supported by expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Russia may weaken, says Kazulin. In his opinion, this happens because the Central Bank is nearing the completion of a cycle of monetary policy easing, and a rise in oil prices in July kompensiruet reduction in the volume of currency sold on the market by the Ministry of Finance in the budgetary rules.
In these conditions the dollar will be significantly reduced only when expressed growing interest in risky assets, and rising oil prices, said Kazulin. Probably most of August, the Russian currency will hold close and 70.5-72 rubles to the dollar, with possible episodes of local sales and care rate to 73 rubles to the dollar, he predicted.
