– At the meeting of the Federal reserve, investors received a signal about readiness of monetary authorities to the extension of support measures, and this could support risk appetite of investors. At the same time increase this kind of monetary support the markets and the economy will be in favor of increasing pressure on the American currency. We believe that in the short term, the dollar could continue a moderate weakening, however, note that the format of this weakening to be very far from some form of the “collapse” of the dollar currency.
Also pay attention to the fact that after the momentum of rising risk appetites from more monetary support for the markets from the fed, in the longer term risks of the return of market optimism for the correction. The most worrying planes remain the ongoing increase in the number of new infections COVID-19 worldwide, as well as a new round of tension in relations between the US and China. We believe that in the case of fears of investors in relation to the implementation of these risks to the fore, the dollar currency can very quickly win back a significant part of the losses, thereby resuming the pressure on emerging markets currencies.
Expect that in the near future, and in August in General, the ruble will retain the tendency to moderate weakening. In the future, Aug expected that the ruble would be formed in the range of 71.5-74 rubles per dollar, weakening to 75 and below with the deterioration, for example, background of the sanctions on Russia can not be excluded, the rate of the ruble to the Euro can be formed in the range of 82-86. According to our estimates, at the end of the year, the ruble against the dollar may be formed near the points 71 (+/-2).
In our view, the expansion of monetary support from the fed and a possible subsequent increase in the appetite to purchase risk is unlikely to be sufficient drivers to return the ruble to strengthen confidence.
Pressure on the ruble may strengthen in the correction of market optimism as due to virus issues, and new stage of escalation in relations between the US and China. Note that the main risk for the ruble exchange rate, in our view, remains geopolitics – sanctions rhetoric in respect of Russia may intensify in the future, and with elections approaching in the US the probability of new sanctions restrictions against Russia may also increase. In favor of the ruble’s weakening in August and next year will continue to be factors such as a further weakening of the current account, as well as the vector of further movement of the key rate, which, according to our estimates, could decline further.