In the summer months often less active in the financial markets and this year seems no exception, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin. However, while the ruble on the background of stabilization of oil prices near $ 40 per barrel Brent crude, in fact, was stuck near 69,5-70 rubles per dollar.
But the strengthening of the ruble in the near future will prevent a decline in demand for risky assets by global investors amid growing risk of a second wave of coronavirus, and against the backdrop of slowing liquidity injections into the markets (in the last two weeks the fed’s balance USA for the first time in the last six months have decreased), according to Kadulin. Moreover, the third quarter is associated with a pronounced seasonal decline of currency inflows on the current account of the balance of payments, which also limits the potential of ruble strengthening, recalls. Therefore, according to the forecast Kadulina, in the medium term we can expect the saving rate of the Russian currency in the range of 68.5-70 rubles per dollar.
Specifically, this week a large number of negative factors, including the situation with coronavirus in the world and geopolitical risks related to the trading relationship between the U.S. and China is likely to limit the ability of the Russian currency, adds the analyst Nordea Bank Grigory Zhirnov. In addition, Friday was the peak of the tax period, with the result that the rouble has lost the local support factor. The dynamics of the ruble in the near future will continue to determine the situation on the world financial markets and the appetite for risky assets, confirms the bold.