Almost a third (30%) of Russian investors will take their money from the banks with a further drop in interest rates on ruble deposits. This figure is obtained by analysts NAFI poll speaks volumes. Current Deposit rates, not reaching 5% per annum, makes this tool, in fact, safe. As former proven way to increase personal capital, he is no longer relevant. Accordingly, people are increasingly thinking about alternative investment options, sometimes much more risky and unpredictable.
At the end of the first decade of July, the average maximum rate under contributions to ten largest banks of Russia fell to a record low of 4.63% (from 4.8% in the third week of June). Obviously, if the Central Bank will continue to reduce the key rate, the yield on deposits will come close to the level of inflation. As noted in the study NAFI, in this situation, the citizens are ready to turn to other tools: gold choose 7%, bonds 6%, properties – 4%, some other way of investment – 12%.
Forecasts are supported by trend that emerged back in January, but strengthened it during the outbreak of coronavirus. In June, the deposits of physical persons in banks decreased by 104 billion roubles, and from the beginning of the year to 594 billion rubles, according to the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the real, not statistical outflow of depositors ‘ money even more, due to increased exchange rate. This phenomenon has several reasons: on the one hand, people fear for their money, on the other, deprived of a source of income, simply pass pre-existing savings.
deposits flow mainly into the stock market, and the process is not the first month. This strategy has proven itself after the crisis of 2008-2009, financial analyst Proof is reminiscent of Alexander Merchant. In his view, a kind of turning point, a psychologically important moment was the fall of the Deposit rate below 10% a couple of years ago. And current yield barely covers the anticipated inflation. Accordingly, those who seek to make money work, more inclined to “risk” by investing in Federal bonds or in currency. While bonds are hardly profitable Bank deposits. Physical gold is still very uncomfortable because of the huge difference between buying and selling. According to the Vikentievich, now worldwide, and not only in our country there is a healthy division of capital purposes. Banks for cash payments and operational expenses, and the stock market for money, designed to increase savings. With regard to the domestic economy, firmly stuck in the crown virus the pit, her low interest rates – an obvious benefit. By November rates may fall closer to 4%, and this will be the absolute “bottom” for the next poll��Yes.
On a truly massive outflow of money from physical persons banks will not, says a senior analyst “Fi we” Sergey Drozdov. First, because the population on the whole is conservative and it is easier to do nothing. Second, because of poor financial literacy of citizens, lack of knowledge and understanding of their current economic realities. Suppose a person has closed the Deposit, but what to do next? Foreign currency is expensive to buy, and OFZ comparable yield with higher risks and inconveniences. So, if the financial contribution is partially or completely can always be removed if necessary at any time, with OFZ will not work. However, Drozdov says that if implemented the idea, voiced by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Granny, it stimulates more serious about the flow of money into the stock market from the banks. We are talking about how to increase the limit on the annual contribution into an individual investment account (IIA) with 1 million to 3 million rubles, and allow partial withdrawals without losing the tax benefits.
do Not believe in the possibility of total outflow of deposits and the head of the analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. According to him, most Russians have little idea how the financial markets work, and don’t venture to withdraw funds, expecting that sooner or later the rate will rise. As long as the prerequisites for this. On the contrary, it is expected that the Board of Directors of the Central Bank at the end of this week will again lower its key rate by 0.5 percentage points. The corresponding signals of the controller have already given. In this case, Deposit rates could theoretically lose is still 0.2-0.3 p. p. However, it is likely that the banks will not do it, to avoid the outflow of liquidity and to retain customers.
