Especially for “the Russian newspaper” mark Goikhman, principal analyst at TeleTrade, called the factors support the ruble, and evaluated the probability of a rate cut, the fed is below zero.
Oil prices rise, storming already the most important milestones of about $ 40 per barrel of Brent. This is a strong psychological and technical level, analyzes the expert. – This, as the ruble due to the optimistic mood in the markets due to the gradual overcoming of the severity of the pandemic and increase economic activity, weakening of the dollar on the currency market.
in addition, investors are hoping that the meeting exporting countries OPEC+ in the first week of June will decide on the renewal of the agreement on reduction of production volumes in may.
In this regard is very significant for oil and ruble will be leaving on Wednesday the data about stocks of black gold in the United States. They are expected to increase by 3.3 million barrels, which can halt the growth of prices. In addition, on 3 June will be released and important indicators of the labor market in the US in may from the Institute of ADP and in the Eurozone in April. It is projected that employment in the sector declined. And this is negative for the dollar and the Euro.
Of domestic factors in the environment important decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on volumes of currency interventions. It is expected that in June he will reduce the sale of foreign currency on the “budget rule” by 15 percent compared to may because of higher oil prices. This factor will play against the ruble.
as for the exchange rates on Wednesday, the most likely range of movement of the ruble to the dollar 68,5-70,0.
And in the remaining days of the week the dynamics of the ruble will be determined by the propensity of players in the global markets for risk, changes in oil prices and currency interventions of the Central Bank. Probably that while oil will not be able to gain a foothold above $ 40, as the main positive factors worked out. Accordingly, the ruble has very limited support. On the other hand, the demand for it support expectations of a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the meeting on 16 June. Investors buy Russian government bonds, while they give a higher yield.
Important future dynamics of the dollar on the currency market. His current weakness is largely due to past actions of the fed to reduce
interest rates and huge injections of dollars into the US economy and the world. Therefore, great interest the debate in the U.S. about the possibility of reducing rates below zero, into the negative zone.
it was Donald trump. However, the fed’s Powell considers this measure excessive, bearing other risks. Maybe he keeps it in reserve in case of a new surge in the pandemic. And yet in the near future negative interest rates is unlikely. Hypothetically, with the introduction of the dollar would have further weakened in the world that would be a factor in its decline and the ruble.
��eye on the current week for the ruble, in addition to the events of the environment, can be significant the meeting of the European Central Bank on 4 June and the official government employment report in the US in may. The dollar may reach the strong line of 67.5-68 rubles. But not below.
Upper limit of the range for the dollar for the week acts 70-70,8 rubles. For Euro the actual corridor for the next days is 75.8-77.8 per ruble.
