Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Anna Bodrov, a senior analyst at IAC Alpari, gave the forecast at the end of this meeting and what the rate may be in the fall:
– Regulator – said the expert – not once gave a fairly clear and strong comments on this. Times the official inflation rate is low and the financial system is groaning and needs support, then it’s time to lower the rate.
With high probability the key rate in Russia will decrease on Friday by 100 basis points from the current value of 5.5 per cent per annum will fall to 4.5 percent. Like it or not, we learn already today.
But the main interest is even likely not that. It is important to understand how the regulator will behave next and how it will shape monetary policy in the next several months.
If inflation will remain in place – it will remain in the range of 3-4 percent, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be the further maneuver. Then, it is not excluded that at the meeting on 31 July, the regulator will provide comments on how that all goes according to plan, the financial system receives enough support, but the Bank of Russia wants to do more. And September 18, when the Central Bank will meet once again, iPod can “drop” up to 4 percent per annum.
For the Russian financial system the rate of 4 per cent to a new low, it’s a gift and a blessing. In the run up to the end of 2020 after the September meeting, the Central Bank probably bet more will not touch.
Usually the national currency weakens, when the local Central Bank reduces rate. However, the Russian ruble has its own game and began to strengthen immediately when the controller gave the signal to the easing of monetary policy.
now in the rouble inherent rate reduction, nowhere to go up – and so the budget deficit problem. However, locally, at the moment, the ruble may become stronger in pairs with the dollar and the Euro.
For the dollar is a benchmark within 68,85-70 roubles, for Euro – 77,75-78,85 ruble.