Ends an era when Russia has prospered thanks to oil. This horse died, as noticed recently, Anatoly Chubais. Need to get off it and change to a new one.
to Find the same mighty horse, what was the oil in the years of Putin’s rule, is unlikely. Instead, she’s the one who needs a few horses, so each pulled at least part of the load that exported it.
Authorities are searching for suitable projects. One, apparently, found. There are, however, not a horse and foal. But to quickly bring up, will have to sacrifice the rights of citizens, harm the environment and violate a number of laws in the country.
First some numbers just to see how much we had before due to the oil and how little we have now.
last year, the state budget of Russia amounted to 20 trillion rubles, and the oil cost an average $ 63 per barrel. Oil revenues brought to the budget of $ 120 billion — about a third of the budget.
At a price of $ 32 per barrel oil revenues will be able to provide not one-third, and only 15% of budgetary expenses.
If oil drops to $ 15 per barrel, the revenues will be altogether about 7% of the budget, and 23% of the costs that were previously paid from the oil money, would be without financial security.
Where is the state to borrow money to close that hole?
Nowhere. Will have to go in a jug. The course will be launched with funds from the national wealth Fund and gold and currency reserves set aside for a “rainy day”. They will last for a couple of years. During this time of economic crisis, pandemic, end of the world the industry will work and manufacturers will once again to buy oil.
the Bad thing is that the prices, which she gave before, no one will offer.
“oil Production in Russia will not fall, but the rent that was past 20 years, we will not be”, — said the Chairman of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin. The same repeat in unison all the experts.
the Pandemic has accelerated what was a long time coming thing.
Oil — everything. In the future it will be approximately the same as coal. Yes, it will buy. But not as much as before, and not for the money.
the Horse died, it’s true. Because in the fashion industry, she did it earlier than expected, but her imminent demise was predicted a long time ago. Over the last 20 years who not only said that the oil needle it is time to get off. So the big news here. This means that the government has to be ready list of new projects, the proceeds of which will be able to compensate for leaving the scene of oil.
We have tried these projects to find.
***
the First of April the state Duma adopted in the first reading the draft amendments to the Federal law “On railway transport in the Russian Federation” and certain legislative acts in order to implement the prio��itarnyh projects on building and reconstruction of railway infrastructure.
In the Duma he joined in December, no hurry to consider it, and suddenly in the midst of a pandemic thought of it.
the first time he did not get enough votes due to the fact that the provisions contained therein openly and defiantly violate other laws guaranteeing the rights of citizens of the Russian Federation.
But the presiding judge immediately declared that there was a technical error and need to re-vote the bill.
His zeal could not fail to draw attention to themselves. It became clear that the law urgently needed upstairs, and what was notified the leadership of the state Duma.
as a result of a DePuy corps by hook or by crook was squeezed out the necessary number of votes, and the bill number 866900-7 in the first reading adopted.
after Reading it, we understand what horse I decided to bet the authorities.
the Idea, just say, is not new.
it Consists in the fact that our wealth is not just forest and mineral resources, but also geographical position, allowing to use the territory of our country for international transit.
If you build a high-speed railway from its Eastern to Western borders, it will be very convenient to haul cargo from China to Europe and back. The TRANS-Siberian and BAM is already there, but where trains can’t reach high speed. It is necessary therefore to upgrade them to pave new ways and benefit: to make a transit, and to have respect from everyone who carries loads on our reliable, fast and safe Railways.
in Doing this was proposed in the 90-ies, but then there was no money in the state, and indeed it was not before. Then the money appeared, but still it was not before. The course was taken for the construction of pipelines, not railroads. What pipe was seen as a tool of political influence: they were tied to Russia Russian consumers of oil.
a Transit project seriously engaged only in 2018, when the government approved a Comprehensive plan for the modernization and expansion of trunk infrastructure for the period until 2024 as one of the national projects.
This Comprehensive plan includes the development of transport corridors East—West and North—South. By 2024, exports of their services should reach $ 25 billion.
Pushed through the Duma in the midst of a pandemic and the fall of oil prices, the bill is evidence of the decision to focus on corridor East—West.
“is Provided to increase the carrying capacity of the Baikal-Amur and TRANS-Siberian mainlines up to 180 million tonnes by 2024, as well as approaches to ports of the Azov-black sea basin, — stated in the explanatory Memorandum to the bill. — Includes measures to increase the capacity for growth of volumes of transit transportations of containers 4 times, as well as reducing the time of transportation of containers by rail (in particular, from the Far East to the Western border of the Russian Federation — up to 7 days)”.
***
to Solve this problem it is necessary very quickly, so bill removed all restrictions that could inhibit construction of new railway lines and upgrading old ones.
In the course of construction and reconstruction of TRANS-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Railways as well as the approaches to the ports of the Azov and Black seas:
1) will not have to hold public discussions and public hearings — all objects will be built without consulting the local population and previously approved territorial plans;
2) will not have to ignore the protected areas (PAS) — if W/d or the way the infrastructure should be built in protected areas, change will be the boundaries of nature reserves, not building plans;
3) necessary for the construction of land — in private ownership, municipal and whatever — will be withdrawn as soon as the corresponding decision the court. Opportunity to challenge it will not.
to Begin construction on the seized plots before they are properly documented, and the documentation for the construction — approved. Yesterday, for example, the court ruled that your dacha plot is withdrawn for state needs: go through the railway. And today you have workers come to mark, to demolish, to dig;
4) connection of projects under construction to technological networks (power lines) will be “special rules”, and pay for them will also be “special”. We can only guess what;
5) stations, warehouses, depots will be built without obtaining the town-planning plan of land plot. Where need be, and there they built;
5) the assessment of impacts on the environment go to the area optional. Environmental assessment will assess the impact on the version of the object placement that is approved by the customer, without consideration of alternatives.
6) to begin construction, it will be possible to obtain permission for construction and public examination;
7) to exploit the built objects can be started before obtaining the permit to operate;
8) in order to produce construction sand and gravel, you can dig trenches where it is convenient for builders, — as well as to dump the soil into water bodies: “the absence of a positive conclusion of the state ecological expertise is not the OSthe basis for refusal to issue a permit for disposal of bottom soil”.
the bill is just a few points, but probably enough for the above to grab the head.
the Legal Department of the State Duma gave the opinion that lists many laws that violate the bill, including articles of Land and Urban development code, the Civil procedure code and Arbitration procedure code.
the Government, however, gave the bill an official opinion. It supported all of the above measures, in addition to position “about features of withdrawal for state or municipal needs of land plots and (or) located on them of objects of real estate.”
thanks for that, as they say.
during the discussion of the bill agree with the deputies explained the urgent need for its adoption by the fact that otherwise the train will travel on the two Railways with a speed of 30-40 km per hour and “we don’t take the fact that transit is exported all countries of the world.”
Dissidents in response to the notice that the bill violates the rights of citizens, and expressed concerns about the generation of “more lawlessness.”
No, unfortunately, it is not said that the project “East—West”, which should help to compensate for the oil loss, it was necessary to begin to bring to life ten years ago, at least.
Then I would not have this rush to judgment with all its consequences.
***
Transit project — or rather, not even the project itself, and the unprecedented manner of its exercise — is distressing.
It violates rights and laws and at the same time shows that the authorities are absolutely not prepared to a reduction in oil revenues. Not thought about how to live the country. Didn’t spread the straw. And only when the thunder began to be baptized.
and now They don’t say anything specific.
“oil Production in Russia will not fall, but the rent that was past 20 years, we will not be, — has promised the other day Alexei Kudrin. For the entire economic policy, including budgetary policies, is a key challenge if non-oil sector will develop more actively. “Rent” will now give new technological and innovative solutions, “figure,” innovations, but only if we stay ahead of the curve”.
What this refers to? What specific “technological solutions”? What is “digit”?
no One decrypts. Just repeat each other with a straight face: “digitalisation”, “high tech”, “artificial intelligence”.
And where does it all come from?
There is, of course, we have a lot of talented people. Young geniuses. Perhaps they can invent a high technology which no one has. But on��her country would be no invention cannot be made into industrial production.
Take, for example, SKOLKOVO. Anyone knows what’s created in recent years such that brings the Treasury of millions of dollars? Not billions as oil, but at least millions?
no One knows. Because nothing is created.
From 2015 to 2019 on average, 64% of Federal budget revenues was due to activities associated with the extraction, transportation and sale of minerals. 82% of these percentages were in the oil and gas sector. Approximately 53.6% of budget revenues came from oil and gas.
Oil the horse died, but the gas is also cheaper. Besides gas market contracts: the Americans and Qatar are now to supply Europe with liquefied gas, at a price comparable with ours.
Good income to the budget brought the arms trade. But because of the sanctions we have and weapons no longer buy. From this market we also squeezed out.
there was hope for commercial space launch and travel of foreign astronauts to the ISS. But space out more money than come from it.
What else can we offer foreign markets? We have such that others do not? The best in the world of women’s figure skating and synchronized swimming?..
the Transit project “East—West” on such a gloomy background, it begins to seem attractive, despite the flagrant violation of law and harm to the environment. Still, there’s something real. Not some mysterious abstract “figure”.
President Putin on 25 may for the first time in two months of isolation have come to the Kremlin. The only personal meeting, as reported on the website of the Kremlin, he met with Sergey Belozerov, Director General of JSC “Russian Railways”. It was about investment in Railways projects related to railway transport.
Belozerov said that the company planned to invest in them 820 billion rubles, but due to the crisis, investment will be reduced to 620 billion the President is not liked. “Still, I ask you and your colleagues carefully analyze the opportunities in terms of investments,” he said.
the fact that the first personal working meeting the President held with the head of Russian Railways, confirmed our version of the extreme urgency of the Transit project.
in the actual absence of other projects with the potential to at least partially compensate for the catastrophic reduction of budget revenue from oil and gas sector, the state continues to spend money on projects that the money in the budget will not bring.
As reported yesterday, the TASS source in the military-industrial complex in Russia started the construction of a prototype of the bomber “Stealth” sixth generation. Development of documentation was completed, �� is already a supply of materials for construction, to be completed in 2021.
And, of course, we all rejoice.
But no. As it is not glad.
P. S. Modern Russian writers, as writers are supposed to have foreseen this development.
In 2003 she published the novel of Victor Pelevin “the Numbers”, where, in particular, there is a paragraph: “the Russian Government indicated in the Chinese language the three “characters”: “temporary, fleeting”, “head”, “pipe, oil pipeline”, “North”. Now in China waiting for the moment when the interim administration of the Northern pipe will reduce the population of adjacent territories to fifty million people, then the great doctrine of the way of the Tao will come finally in the vast expanses of Eurasia in full”.
And in 2006 saw the light novel by Vladimir Sorokin “Day guardsmen”. The action takes place in Russia in the year 2027, separated from the rest of the world “great Russian Wall”. The country restored the monarchy. There is no industry, nothing is done, the only revenues are sales of natural gas and fees from the transit of Chinese goods to Europe.
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