The Russian ruble significantly strengthened against the major global currencies. On Thursday, the U.S. currency for the first time since March 10 fell below the level of 71 rubles./$. Even with Friday’s bounce rate to around 71,56 RUB/$ it remained near levels seen in the beginning of March. Since the beginning of the week the US dollar lost in Russia more than 2 RUB Bullish play on the Russian currency market contributes to the pinning oil prices near $35 a barrel and also an approximation of the tax period in Russia.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts analitikuri will show negative dynamics against major world valuting the upcoming weeks, the Russian ruble could come under pressure from external factors. The main reason for the decline in demand for risk could be the continued growth of tension in relations between the US and China, which could have a negative impact on the recovery of the global economy. Against this background, the risk-weighted assets and, in particular, the currencies of developing countries can undergo a wave of selling. Plus, the situation may put pressure on the energy market. In this case, the ruble will show negative dynamics against major world currencies. So, the pair dollar/ruble may attempt return to the 73-75 range From internal factors highlight the passage in Monday’s peak of tax payments, which will lead to the loss of the ruble support from the exporters. A long-time horizon expected return of a rouble exchange rate to moderate oslableniya of the ruble ends the week near the levels 72 RUB/$. Oil prices adjusted to levels below $35, but overall the pricing environment remains relatively high, allowing the Russian currency to maintain stability. Expect that next week the ruble would be formed in the range of 71.5–73 rubles./$. In addition to the oil support in the ruble would act as a support of the tax period, and the training companies to pay dividends. Support from the debt market will also be saved. Note that at longer time horizon the expected return of a rouble exchange rate to a moderate weakening.Support to the national currency providing training for exporters to tax vilacampina on currencies traditionally will have sentiments on global trading floors: they are sensitive to the mutual aggravation of rhetoric between the US and China. Washington firmly responds to the PRC’s desire to stabilize the situation in Hong Kong and ready to respond harshly to what is happening. Support the national currency has a training of exporters for tax payments, which will peak next week.Without the support of St��Rhone oil market the rouble has little chance to continue the trend ukrepleniia leaders the beginning of the week, the Russian currency passed to outsiders for its completion. General negativity on global markets associated with the escalation of relations between the U.S. and China, as well as the deterioration in expectations of recovering demand for energy, provoked the weakening of primarily the commodity currencies. The decline of support of the ruble by the Central Bank against the background of rising oil prices, the Russian currency less opposed to external pressure. In addition, the domestic debt market has already laid the reduction of the key rate by 100 b. p. in June, while it is possible to shed the primary market of OFZ due to the implementation of incentive programs, financed from the budget, reduces the attractiveness of the secondary market. Without support from the oil market the rouble has little chance to continue strengthening trend.
