the Central Bank had lowered the key rate by 1 percentage point to 4.5 per annum. We will remind, a year ago, in June 2019, the value of the rate was 7.75 percent, then the controller consistently drove him to 5.5% (last April). Low key the “injected” money into the economy, is considered an important lever of financial recovery. We asked the experts how the Central Bank decision will have an impact on consumer demand, rates on Bank deposits and credit availability.
Coronaries, in the opinion of management of the Central Bank, created the conditions for aggressive easing of monetary policy: in April and may slipped sharply and GDP, and retail sales, and industrial production. All this combined with low inflation (3% at the end of may) have left the regulator of choice: trade in paralysis, people have no money to purchase, and this situation urgently needs to change.
Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist UK “Arikapital”: “in theory, all bets in the banking sector depend on the key rate of the Central Bank. As a rule, once it is reduced, banks in the pursuit of profit faster and more willing to reduce interest rates on deposits, even at the risk to face an outflow of funds from deposits.
with regard to consumer loans here the banks prefer to act more carefully and today especially carefully. In the last months of the pandemic, many people ran out of money, respectively, increased delinquency on loans. Therefore, banks, in an effort to reduce risks and avoid losses, clearly not in a hurry to lower interest rates on loans. And the Central Bank its current solution to this situation not much will change”.
Alexander Razuvaev, head of IAC “Alpari”: “the Central Bank was guided by several circumstances. First, it is low inflation and weak consumer demand.Second, the relative stability of the ruble. Thirdly, and most importantly – the regulator recently called target (target) on the key rate of 6-7%, has surrendered under the pressure of borrowers: businesses and citizens clamoring for cheap loans.
However, the ordinary people, his decision does not Bode well. Already tiny interest rates on deposits will fall sharply and will be comparable to the rate of inflation – 3%. But lending rates did not change much. In the era of pandemic risks of lending have increased significantly. And commercial banks are laying their bets. The Central Bank decision is neutral for the ruble exchange rate, – until the end of the year the dollar will cost about 70 rubles.”
Alexander kuptsikevich, FxPro financial analyst: “the Economy requires a radical push to get back to work after the spring isolation. Business and consumer activity is abnormally decreased.
Inflation remains low. People spent more on products and p��admati Essentials, but these costs are no longer the most important item of expenditure. In addition, with a few exceptions, manufacturers do not hurry to raise prices even on sought after products. The ruble impressively restored their positions in may and June, which was not in previous crises. All this explains the decision of the Central Bank.
as for interest rates on Bank loans, mortgages and deposits, they will continue to decline. Further easing of monetary policy will fuel the interest of commercial banks to lend to people. While they are not in a hurry to do it.”
