This gave rise to talk about the beginning of a new price war between OPEC and Russia. But in reality, so far no fighting in the oil market is out of the question, although the competition will increase.
In Europe, Saudi oil will drop to 2.5-2.8 dollar. In the North-West’s main rival Russian Urals Arab Light grade will sell at a discount $ 1.8 per barrel to the Brent price. For comparison, in the last week of July, according to the Argus Urals discount to Brent was 13¢. Similarly in Asia, the price of Arab Super Light will decrease by 60 cents, Arab Extra Light by 50 cents, and Arab Light – 30 cents.
For Russian Urals in Europe, it will only mean further cost reduction. Apparently, the Urals just go back to its usual discount to the Brent price two to three dollars per barrel, which will give her the opportunity to compete with Saudi cultivars. In addition, the European refinery, is technically configured for processing Russian oil, are unlikely to be due to another discount and short-term benefits go to the processing of other brands, even loved ones characteristics.
In Asia, the situation is more complicated. Russia delivers to as light crude oil grades and Urals. Discount Saudi Arabia may slightly reduce the export volumes of all brands from Russia, but the main role here will not play the price competition, and the level of demand of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Problems with the export to the East will arise from all providers, if by September to a normal level of consumption will not return India or worse quarantine restrictions in other countries in the region.
Therefore, a new price war between OPEC and Russia say more for old time’s sake. At the current price level is above $ 40 per barrel, discounts, proposed by Saudi Arabia, is very far from hard dumping. The cost of oil relative to Brent is reduced to less than five percent.
“Saudi Arabia is very carefully comply with the terms of the agreement OPEC+, which does not prohibit price competition, and this competition, of course, will continue,” – said the head of the research Department on fuel and energy complex and housing and communal services of the Analytical center under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Kurdin. He said that a reasonable discount to the major brands of oil, while the prices of these stamps is relatively high support afloat oil and provide a more solid basis for the gradual recovery of demand.
the Russian oil industry workers it is necessary to take into account the pricing of competitors, but discounts Saudi Arabia is a pretty low risk given the General uncertainty because of the pandemic, and the preservation of crisis phenomena in the economy-consumers, said Kurdin.
in addition, surprising discounts on oil from Riyadh, no. Saudi Arabia periodicas��and changes of prices for oil supply in different regions, stimulating consumption, said the analyst of “OTKRITIE Broker” in the commodity markets Oksana Lukicheva. In her opinion, the results of the OPEC meeting of 18 August, it will be possible to evaluate the actions of Saudi Arabia. But for now consider that the Kingdom starts a price war prematurely, Lukicheva said.