The Russian government may face a new challenge, which will be more serious than even Western sanctions and falling prices for hydrocarbons. Such a challenge may become a war between the US and China, which has become one of the most discussed topics in the world.
That the US and China may start direct military conflict, analytical Agency Rand warned in 2016, before the election of President of the United States Donald trump. On the other hand, don’t need to be a prophet to see the obvious geopolitical trends. They consist in the fact that the power of China grows from year to year, and he could become a world leader.
At the same time States are at risk of losing global hegemony. This will mean that the dollar can no longer be exchanged for the results of the labor of people around the world, and this is a complete economic collapse for the United States. So the choice Americans have little: to die under the pressure of growing power of China, or the risk of their own existence, try to crush China, until it was too late.
All that we see on the news feeds is a separate manifestation of the global confrontation between America and China. Disputes over Taiwan, military exercises in the South China sea, closing of consulates, sanctions, accusations of spreading COVID-19, statements about intellectual property theft… Innumerable reasons for mutual attacks, which only proves that the fight began in earnest.
Theoretically trump could attack Kim Jong-UN only in order to increase your ranking in the eyes of citizens. But China is really serious, and there is no sign that the crisis will be filmed in the near future.
Moreover, there is a factor of the epidemic of the coronavirus. China has shown the world that has a more effective model of social organization than Western States. Its economy is more efficient. So, for workers around the world appeared a visible alternative to the usual capitalist market economy.
Of course, there are economic factors. For example, through the South China sea, to the Islands which claim several countries of goods transported annually by 3 trillion dollars. However, we are seeing signs that the confrontation between the two powers is ideological in nature. The struggle is for the idea, in accordance with which to develop all of humanity, United by globalization. This means that the war may be for life and death.
The relationship between the US and China today can be assessed as the worst in the last 40 years, since 1979, when Washington and Beijing established diplomatic relations. And all compounded by the fact that in the confrontation between the two powers inevitably involved other countries and continents.
Already announced the end of the “Golden era” of relations between China and the UK. Lo��don has decided to impose restrictions on Chinese companies. And Germany, despite the huge number of joint economic projects, openly criticize Beijing for human rights violations. Large division is emerging in Southeast Asia. The countries of the region will have to choose with whom they will remain, and experts and leaders talking about for several years.
And in this new coordinate system will inevitably fall to Russia. Lower the worst-case scenario of global nuclear Apocalypse. But even the increase of the trade war between the US and China will affect the world market will lead to a drop in demand for many goods and services. Accordingly, the fall in energy demand — the main source of replenishment of the Russian budget.
And if the fight will be tougher? Of course, nice to know that anti-Americans we are not alone. But really, the US hope to win Moscow over to their side, but because no Western sanctions will not be lifted. Moreover, there is a risk of attack on Russia due to the fact that in a global confrontation, it will play the role of a raw hinterland of China. While Beijing is unlikely to help. Simply put, Russia is like a little grain will fall between the millstones. The reason for this is the weak economy and internal situation that threatens to turn a lot of instability. Alas, but that’s about it, few people are going to Russia to contemplate.