The author draws attention to the obvious: Lukashenko began a tough fight with their opponents after several years of flirting with the West, accompanied by mutual admiration and handouts. The leaders of the EU and the US insisted that it’s all for the democratization of Belarus. And as soon as Lukashenko once again fall from the path of democracy, the sanctions will return. But when Lukashenka behaves really as a dictator, sanctions from the West should not be. The author makes a terrible guess: the West does not care about democracy, he needs a feud with Russia, Belarus.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka has deserved sanctions. This election campaign in Belarus, culminating in Sunday’s vote was the most violent and dirtiest in the history of the country. But while the EU, Britain and the United States are limited to quite familiar and futile appeals to the Belarusian authorities condemning their actions. The waiver of sanctions will be de facto license to continue repression.
Despite all this, the West and after the election Sunday is unlikely to impose serious sanctions. There are some very dubious reasons.
First, Western leaders fear that sanctions against Lukashenka can get him to fawn over Russia, to cease to treat her roughly. But in any case does not occur: relations with Russia are already ruined, because Belarus accuses her of attempts to interfere in its internal Affairs. So do not be afraid of sanctions: they will be a warning signal, and after their introduction, the Belarusian authorities can once again try to improve relations with the West and easing repression, to get more help in the event of any confrontation with Russia.
Secondly, the West wants to impose sanctions because of the fact that he has already made some efforts to improve relations with the Belarusian authorities. To punish Lukashenko is to bury it (admittedly, rather modest) achievements started in 2014 after the conflict in Ukraine, the dialogue Belarus — West. Even Secretary of state Mike Pompeo spent this year meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk, after Belarus had replaced the small, but highly symbolic amount of Russian oil for oil from the USA. And the West will have to answer to his conscience, if the dialogue between Minsk and the West will continue in parallel with repression. And so it most likely will.
The third reason why the West refuses to targeted economic sanctions and visa restrictions, is to doubt that such measures will give effect and impact on the democratization process. Maybe the penalty in this case appropriate, however very few in the history of examples of such punishment are changing the nature of the regime.
According to this logic, if the West will impose sanctions, the Belarusian authorities will continue to campaign WHtokih repression, because they have nothing to lose. But in previous years the government of this country has released political prisoners in response to the policy of carrot and stick pursued by the West. If Belarusian political prisoners was not the price tag, Minsk probably would have thrown in jail every single one of them.
In fairness I must say that there are reasonable arguments in favor of sanctions and against them. But if the West will not apply (due to the lack of political will or because of a sincere doubt as to their effectiveness), he, at least, should focus on helping ordinary Belarusians in countering the repression of the Lukashenka. After the elections arrested and jailed Belarusian citizens simply may not have enough money on lawyers and unreasonably imposed fines on them.
If the repression will be further proliferation of independent media and human rights organizations need money to continue the work in spite of the wave of repression. Many entrepreneurs may lose their business due to the fact that openly supported free elections. Thus, if the West will not impose sanctions against Lukashenko, he should, at least, to show solidarity with communities in need in Belarus.
